.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup- Pre-730ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

·        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·        Yields: 30Y Bond +1.6%  Currencies:  USA$-.03%, CAD -0.8%, YEN+.75%,  BTC/USD +.67%,  Vix: 30.65

·        Stocks: TSLA-2.65%   deliveries due today NCNO-34%, EPS NMAX-18%  & CRWV -1%  recent IPOs wild movers
News:  USA: Non-farm payrolls 830ET CDN: Jobs report 830ET  China: Retaliates with 35% tariff

·        Overview: China announcing 35% tariffs on USA goods sparked another wave of selling. Vix futures which were already inverted are above 30 which is an extreme level and usually marks an equity bottom or the start of a liquidation event. ODTE expiration positioning is currently not indicating support (as I write) until SPX 5000. SPY522 is very oversold and will likely gyrate with downside levels 520-500. Note there is an unfilled gap at 503 and Aug pivot at 510. Upside first resistance at 540. QQQ 438 with overnight low 430 as downside reference and first resistance at 450. QQQ Jul low was 425 which is another level to watch. Premarket setup is classic risk-off with bonds, Yen well bid. Typically this level of vol is not sustainable and usually decays over the weekend but given the potential for more news over the weekend (e.g. European response) it may remain bid. With CTAs, vol control funds max short the main downside risk IMO is margin calls and forced liquidation. I am seeing signs of credit spreads widening which is something the FED will be watching and Powell may mention when he speaks today at 11:25ET today. There are also 2 other FOMC members speaking this afternoon and may soothe the markets. Non-farm payrolls were better than expected which in theory does not indicate a reason for the FED to act however their prime directive is market stability. MAG7 and semis continue to be hit today as the most crowded trades unwind. Reminder that foreign buyers have huge USA equity exposure and are heavily weighted to large cap USA stocks. Options are very expensive due to the vol and if one has a desire to buy the dip, its best looking out +3m with verticals or flys as when the market bounces vol will contract and work against calls.  Usually this type of market action occurs at bottoms BUT the risk of further decline due to forced selling from margin calls cannot be discounted so extreme caution is warranted. High vol will also lead to large intraday moves and wide bid-ask spreads so tread softly regardless of direction. Again, Powell today may be very important. Good luck. 

Stocks to watch UNG, TLT, NKE, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, DLTR,  Speculative MSTR, MARA
Pre-800ET
Indices TLT, IBIT, KWEB, USO, FXI, ARKG, ARKF, KRE, XLE, SMH, EFA, QTUM, XLF

S&P500  NKE, AMZN, TSLA, AAPL, SMCI, INTC, CCL, META, AVGO, AMD, PLTR, MU, GOOGL, PFE
S&P500 BABA, PDD, SOFI, IONQ, FXI, HOOD, TIVN, IWM, XLF, MARA

Trade Idea:SPY

SPY premarket low 479.5 which is below the daily expected move. SPX4800 (SPY 478) is a major option positioning level so can use SPY 478-480 as a reference level for long/short and >500 for potential bounce trades. Note that with tariff news driving markets, very high risk for news events causing sharp moves intraday.