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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Neutral global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +0.41%  Currencies:  USA$-.4%, CAD +.16%, YEN+.57%,  BTC/USD -1%  Vix: 25.6

·         Stocks: IBM-6.5%, CMG-2.4%, PG-1%, NOW+8.6%, PI+18%, TXN+8.8%, LRCX+4.3%, MBLY+7.4%,  EPS
News:  USA: UE claims and durable goods 830ET
Overview: USA indices were lower overnight but are rising in the NY premarket. The Trump/Bessent pump job reversed Wed when Bessent had said that a trade deal with China could take years. Tariff jawboning is now the dominant market mover. Macro: USA UE claims inline; Core durable goods lower but full durable goods much higher than expected. US$ and yields lower, positive for gold which has held 3300. Earnings a mixed bag with IBM CMG PG lower and NOW TXN LRCX MBLY higher. NOW can provide a boost to cloud and TXN for the industrial semi space e.g. ON STM. MAG7 are generally positive with the two pumper faves TSLA and NVDA leading and GOOGL flat ahead of earnings after the close which will be market moving for other MAG7. GOOGL AI, advertising and data center growth will be important for MSFT, AMZN, META with caveat that GOOGL tends to be opaque on guidance so focus may be on the trailing data. GOOGL legal woes remain a large uncertainty for the company but analysts tend to cling to the stock being “cheap”. Goldminers bouncing after a pullback Wed and will be assisted by NEM which beat estimates and lately has been lower post earnings.  SPX iron condor seller is back and setting 5445 and 5290 as the range and typically market tests the range. SPX may chop around within that range.

Simple bull bear levels: SPY 535, QQQ 455

·         SPY 535.7 Resistance  540 543 545, Support 535 530 527,  QQQ 456, Resistance 460 462, Support 450 446

·         Daily Expected Move SPX(5455-5296), SPY(543-527), QQQ(462-446), IWM(193-187)

Stocks to watch TSLA, NVDA, AMZN, ISRG, BA, ENPH, gold Speculative VRT, SMCI 
Pre-800ET
Indices GDX, SMH, GLD, USO, IGV, TLT, XLK, ETHE, UNG, IBIT, KWEB, SLV, XLF, UUP, XLC

S&P500  TXN, NOW, ON, LRCX, NXPI, MU, SMCI, INTC, PLTR, IBM, CMSA, DOV

Other MBLY, STM, NVO, GOLD, ASTS, OKLO, TAL, JD, SRAD

Trade Idea: GOOGL

GOOGL has been declining since Feb when money started leaving MAG7. 20ema has been resistance and latest set of WH jawboning has lifted GOOGL to that level. Expected move is +/-9 for earnings. GOOGL has large put positions below and large call positions above which can lead to a larger than expected move.  The option skew was very bearish up to Apr8 but has now improved to slightly bearish which suggests closing of some puts with the jawbone pop. Look for MSFT AMZN META to move with GOOGL ad and cloud revenue. Revenue and earnings reported is backward looking so will not reflect the impact of the uncertainty brought on by tariff shenanigans and GOOGL tends to not provide forecasts so market reaction will be interesting. FTC legal action is ongoing which adds another degree of uncertainty.