.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Neutral global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.13% Currencies: USA$+.05% CAD -.00% YEN+.21%  BTC/USD +0%  Vix: 23.6

·       Stocks: DPZ-2% EPS
News: USA: No news. A lot of Bessent jawboning on Sunday talk shows. Says an India deal might be first. 

·       Overview: USA indices are consolidating after last week’s squeeze. There are no major economic news and no new tariff news. Bessent is working hard to suggest that the trade deals are coming despite that usually major trade deals take 1.5 yrs versus 1 week. Container traffic from China to USA has fallen off a cliff and fintwit is abuzz on whether WMT et al have reinstated orders but meanwhile trucking stocks are diving and unknown to me is whether the order cancellation is going to lead to retail shortages. Retailers had stocked up ahead of tariffs so are working off inventory. Indices and MAG7 finished last week above the weekly expected move with TSLA in particular making a massive move on the back of massive call buying after pathetic earnings. In the absence of hard data from companies or economic data or signed trade agreements; the market will be manipulated by short term option trades. As evidenced last week, selected MAG7 are the instrument. Premarket TSLA META are the leaders and NVDA the laggard. META AMZN MSFT AAPL are reporting earnings this week and until then can be in play. TSLA manipulation may take it to 300, which is where the high call open interest resides. Implied volatility is very depressed relative to realized and there is a dearth of puts until SPX4800 as shorts are out and vol sellers have re-entered. The end of the month, beginning of the new month is usually bullish as 401K money enters on autopilot which can push up stocks; however the decrease in IV and closing of shorts also is a set-up for a larger than expected pullback.  Remember that so far nothing tangible has actually changed and a low liquidity market is susceptible for large moves in either direction.

·       Simple bull bear levels: SPY 550 QQQ 470

·       SPY 551.4  Resistance  555 560  Support 548 545   QQQ 473  Resistance 475 479 Support 470 465 

·       Daily Expected Move SPX(5583-5467) SPY(556-545) QQQ(479-466) IWM(197-191)

Stocks to watch META, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA Speculative HOOD, BA, SOFI
Pre-800ET
Indices XBI, UNG, SMH, GDX, KWEB, XLK, TLT, USO, FXI

S&P500 GOOGL, ABBV, META, INTC, AVGO, AAPL

Other CGON, SMMT, BULL, HIMS, SWTX, TEVA, HOOD, BA, SOFI, MSTR, TSLA, FUTU, NVDA, AVGO

Trade Idea: INDA

Foreign stocks have outperformed USA in 2025 as US$ weakens and potential money returns back home. India is not the top performing foreign country however it has rebounded from the tariff induced fall and may benefit from the “deal” that Bessent is yapping about. INDA is approaching the 200sma and above may reach prior high of 55.75 and 59. This is a recovery trade so riskier than if was already in an uptrend but less extended than the stronger foreign indices like Germany and Singapore.