.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Market Setup- Pre-730ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Neutral   global set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.35% Currencies: USA$-.5% CAD +.16% YEN+.67%  BTC/USD +.25% Vix: 23.45

·       Stocks: XYZ-21%, AAPL -3%, AMZN -1.6%, RDDT+5.7% EPS
News: USA: Non-farm payroll 830ET China: Potentially open to starting trade talks with USA with condition that back-off on the massive tariffs.

·       Overview: USA equities backed off post AAPL AMZN earnings releases after yet another tariff related news item that China is evaluating opening talks with USA. AAPL and AMZN did beat estimates and confirmed that capex will not be cut, providing support to the data center / AI names. The tariff risk was identified and will impact the future earnings. Non-farm payrolls will be reported before the open and will move the markets, especially since the ADP report was weak and GDP was negative. Implied volatility is elevated ahead of the report and usually falls post the report which can provide a lift to the market. Premarket the IWM is leading and a likely beneficiary of an inline or better than expected report. Caveats: indices are close to the top of the weekly range; downside protection has been reduced which opens the downside; the primary reason for markets up is the China news event and its very premature.  China stocks are leading on the tariff news but are elevated premarket. US$ is lower giving a lift to gold and silver premarket. Non-farm payroll report will move bonds, gold, US$ and equity. A weak report would normally be negative for US$ and positive for gold and short term bonds but equity uncertain as can react to higher probability of a Fed rate cut or recession probability. Hence watch levels for equity.
  

·       Simple bull bear levels: SPY 560, QQQ 480

·       SPY 560.9 Resistance 565 567 Support 560 555 550, QQQ 483  Resistance 485 490 Support 480 475

·       Daily Expected Move SPX(5686-5521) SPY(566.7-550) QQQ(489.7-473.7) IWM(199-193)

Stocks to watch NVDA, META, BABA, PLTR, AAPL, AMZN Speculative  RDDT
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, FXI, GDX, SMH, EFA, GLD, IWM, XLF, XLV, XBI, XLI,  ETHE, US$, UNG 

S&P500  PLTR, NVDA, AMZN, AAPL

Other XPEV, RDDT, NVO, BABA, JD, TSM, ZETA, OKLO, XYZ 

Trade Idea: IWM

IWM is leading premarket and will likely have the largest index move on non-farm payrolls. Straddle approach, long above 196 call wall with resistance 200, 205. Below 196, support at 195, 193, 190 may be used for dip buys. Below 190 it is below the put wall and a warning indication.