.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral  global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -.05% Currencies: USA$-.23%, CAD +.06%, YEN+.68%,  BTC/USD+2.2%%, Vix: 23.7 Stocks: UBER-3.4%, ANET-5%, VST-3.3%, GOLD-1%, UPST-16%, ROK+8.7%, AMD+1.3%, NVO+4.5%, DIS+6.5%, WYNN+2.4%, EPS MRVL-8.8% postponed investor day on uncertainty
News: USA: FOMC 14ET; China: Rate cut and stimulus; China and USA to meet on Saturday to discuss trade
Overview: USA indices bounced on news that China and USA will meet on Saturday to discuss trade, but pulling back in NY premarket.FOMC meeting at 14ET is the big event, no rate cuts expected but market will move on comments regarding balance sheet and Powell’s tenor. China announced rate cuts and providing stimulus but China stocks are trading lower. Trade meeting led to an increase in US$ and a pullback in gold and silver. Earnings: AMD beat and indicated buying ahead of tariffs but provided very wide guidance based on uncertainty; UBER lower on slowing rideshare bookings; DIS higher on better than expected results; ROK strong move above the expected move.  MRVL is notably lower on cancelling its investor meeting due to uncertainty.   MAG7 are higher with outperformance by TSLA AAPL AMZN.  AAPL and AMZN probably the largest beneficiaries of a resolution of the trade war. Bitcoin up today after a 2 day pullback lifting the usual suspects MSTR MARA. IWM leading USA index and leaders premarket are speculative names so potential for a short squeeze kind of day in the morning until Powell is on the stage. S&P 0DTE is light with resistance at 5700 and support at 5500 so today will depend on where the 0DTE traders want to take it. Take care.

·       Simple bull bear levels: SPY 560, QQQ 480

·       SPY 560.9 Resistance 565 566 Support 560 555 552 QQQ 482.8  Resistance 484 485 488 Support 480 475 472

·       Daily Expected Move SPX(5674-5607) SPY(566-552) QQQ(488-475) IWM(200-194)

Stocks to watch GDX, GLD, SLV, PLTR, META, GOOGL, TSLA  Speculative GFI, HMY, PONY, MARA, MSTR
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, ETHE, IBIT, ARKG, ARKK, IWM, XLC, XBI, XLV, XLF, USO, XLE, GDX, FXI, KWEB, SLV, GLD, EFA

S&P500 ZTS, PLTR, F, TSLA, NVDA, SMCI, UBER, GOOGL

Other OSCR, ZK, NBIS, TEVA, NVO, MARA, MSTR, ZIM, LI, TEM, UPST, SRPT, MRVL, ENTG, PONY, FUTU, OKLO, HIMS, BABA, XPEV, RIVN, PDD

Trade Idea: SHOP

SHOP reports Thurs before the open. Expected move is +/-10.7 Range based on option positioning 85-105 with  potential for larger moves above 105 due to calls. SHOP elevated volatility this week makes it attractive for earnings butterflies or calendar/diagonal trades.