.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -,42%  Currencies:  USA$+.13%, CAD -0.26%, YEN0.0%,  BTC/USD-0.8%,  Vix: 19.75

·         Stocks:  OKTA -12.4%, ANF+28%, M+4%, DKS+4%,  EPS
News:  USA: FOMC meeting minutes 14ET;

·         Overview:  USA indices are slightly higher after the Tues squeeze driven by 0DTE call buying. Foreign indices are generally lower so a mixed equity set-up. The FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 14ET likely not impactful. NVDA earnings after the close will be impactful and is leading to elevated index IV for the event. Impact of China export ban, the middle east “deals” and the move by customers to non-NVDA custom inference chips will be major topics. NVDA earnings reaction will move the semi sector and QQQ index due to it’s size.  Retail stocks are higher with ANF M DKS moving higher despite Macy week forecast with ANF short squeezing the hedge funds. MAG7 are led by TSLA which was squeezed Tues despite continuing poor sales data and NVDA ahead of the big event.  Tues squeeze moved the USA indices to the top of the weekly expected move, hence in theory stretched but as demonstrated Tues, 0DTE option traders with an illiquid market can move markets at will. SPX iron condor seller is targeting a range of 5965 – 5885 and usually the index will move to one of these levels. Bitcoin could be in play with VP Vance speaking at a crypto conference and GME announced they are buying bitcoin which is a positive catalyst following DJT buying bitcoin.  In the speculative basket today it looks like Space names still in play and Quantum taking a breather.

Simple bull bear levels: SPY 590, QQQ 520, IWM 205,

·         SPY 591.8, Resistance 595 596 600   Support 589 587 585,   QQQ 522.8  Resistance 525 526 530  Support 520 516 515
Daily Expected Move. SPX(5970-5872), SPY(596-586), QQQ(526-516), IWM(210-205)

Stocks to watch AMD, NVDA, TSLA, PLTR,  PDD,  Speculative ACHR, RKLB
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, USO, XRT, GDX, MSOS, SMH, ARKK, GLD, ARKQ, QQQ, EFA, IBIT, ETHE, FEZ, FXI, KWEB, IWM

S&P500  SMCI, AVGO

Other ANF, FNMA, MBLY, DKS, M, RKLB, GME, ACHR, DJT, LUNR, SMCI, TEVA, BULLS, ASTS, XPEV, OKTA, GDS, IONQ, KC, MUFG, VIK, PONY, QBTS, SMR, PDD, NOVO

Trade Idea: NVDA

NVDA reports after the close. There is a lot of uncertainty around the impact of export bans and impact of customer designed chips being used in lieu for inference. The implied move is 5.9% c.f. the average move of 7.7%. Traders have been selling the 140 calls and 130 puts so expecting NVDA to stay between. Opportunity for a much larger move if one of those levels are breached. An interesting trade could be a strangle or diagonal a few weeks out to gain from a larger move if the consensus positioning is incorrect.