.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.47% Currencies: USA$+.05%, CAD -.13%, YEN-.02%, BTC/USD +0.73% Vix: 18.2

·       Stocks: SJM-7.6%, CNM-5%, ASO+.65%, UNFI+4.7%, CASY+10.3%,    EPS TSM+2% May revenue +39.6% Y/Y
 News: USA: China-USA trade talks. Stocks dropped overnight on a China report that talks were not going well. Luttnick says they are.

·       Overview: Global equities dipped overnight on a China news item that USA trade talks were not going well, but recovering with USA indices rising with European open and continuing with NY premarket. It’s clear that China trade discussion is the major catalyst with potential for news reports at anytime. Monday was a short squeeze day with momentum, small caps leading. Semis were strong on potential that USA would loosen China export restrictions which is a China want but USA security/military want restrictions. TSM reported 40% higher May revenue Y/Y which is good enough for algos to buy semis. Monday saw strong moves in smaller semi names and less flow into NVDA, so rotation within. The Ponzi tech groups, electric planes, drones, space, nuclear were well bid Monday. Today premarket bitcoin, quantum, space are leading. CRWV, one of the top Ponzis is weaker premarket. MAG7 are led by TSLA which rebounded Monday on nonsense that Trump and Elon spoke but in actuality it’s a case of traders shorting in the hole getting squeezed for the nth time. META and NVDA are also leading but AAPL is lagging after the WWD conf where the AI story could not move the needle. IWM is leading again premarket and can continue either due to CTAs buying momentum or hedgies getting squeezed (which often happens at the end of a bull trend. S&P is well supported into Jun20 Opex with positive gamma hence likely mean reverting. Wed CPI and 10Y will be the next catalyst apart from a tariff tweet. Note that short-term vol is << July futures which is a caution signal since vol is mean-reverting and institutions are buying longer-term Vix futures to hedge with tariff outcome cloudy.

Simple bull bear levels: SPY 599, QQQ 530, IWM 213

·       SPY 600.6 Resistance 603 605  Support 599 595 594, QQQ 531.7  Resistance 534 535 Support 530 529 525
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6044-5967), SPY(603.5-596), QQQ(534.9-527), IWM(215-211)

Stocks to watch AMD, COIN, NVDA, AAPL, TSLA, HOOD, APP Speculative RKLB, ACHR, IONQ, NBIS
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, MSOS, XLE, TLT, IBIT, USO, SMH, ARKK, SLV, KWEB, IPO

S&P500 TSLA 

Other INSM, TME, SBET, CORZ, NVO, TSM, BEKE, MP, RGTI, IREN, SMR, APLD, ASTS, RIOT, LQDA, UBS, CRWV, XMTR

Trade Idea: TSLA

TSLA reversed intraday and squeezed the shorts. 315 is the top of the weekly expected move but above can squeeze to 320 and higher.  322 is the 20ema and a potential target above and 332 would close the gap created by the Elon/Trump riff. Jun12 is the Austin FSD trial and shorts may want to exit ahead and the TSLA fans may want to buy ahead.