Swing Trade Idea – June 20, 2025
Date:Jun 20, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global set-up
- Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
- Yields: 30Y Bond -.36% Currencies: USA$ -.19% CAD -.14% YEN -.44% BTC/USD +.5% Vix: 20.8
- Stocks: ACN-4.3% DRI+4.4% EPS
News: USA: Philly Fed 830ET; Trump making decision on attacking Iran in next 2 weeks CDN: Retail sales and PPI 830ET
Overview: USA indices bouncing in NY premarket predictably with Trump suggesting there might be some diplomacy in the middle east but also the $3.9T AM SPX Opex which can provide a lift as puts expire at the open. There will be another $2T of options expiring at the close today with single stock options call heavy which can lead to volatility in the afternoon. The reaction to a hint of mideast diplomacy is a pullback in Brent oil, gold, bonds and US$. Silver is pulling back from overbought potentially due to call heavy into Opex. The big mover today is CRCL which has been getting squeezed higher since the senate passed the Genius bill. COIN and bitcoin related names strong. V and MA are higher but have been weak with the meme that use of stable coin can move payment off the legacy credit card networks. MAG7 are muted with TSLA leading ahead of the potential robo taxi trial. Spec tech leading with ARK etfs strong. Space, quantum, AI, nuclear have been uber strong with retail and hedgefunds targeting. Softbank talking about a $1T robot investment will boost interest in robotic names and companies that provide sensor technology. Large SPX positions at 6000 make it a good bull/bear level with 6050 and 6100 upside targets and 5920 to the downside. Next week, the Opex will result in a diminishing of the positive gamma which has been supporting indices which can result in greater movement into monthly/quartely opex. JPM position SPX5905 which expires Jun30 is potential support next week barring substantial escalation in the middle east.
Simple bull bear levels: SPY 600 QQQ 530 IWM 210 - SPY 596 Resistance 596 600 603 Support 595 594 QQQ 530 Resistance 531.2 535 Support 529 527 525 524
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6025-5937) SPY(600-591.3) QQQ(535.6-522.4) IWM(213-206)
Stocks to watch COIN, KMX, TSLA, KMX, ACN Speculative OSCR, ALAB, LEU, UPST
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, ETHE, IBIT, ARKK, IWM, ARKF, ARKG, XBI, XLY, SMH, SLV, GDX, TLT, KWEB, GLD, UUP
S&P500 COIN, BAC
Other OSCR, COIN, LEU, ALAB, CRDO, CPNG, UPST
Trade Idea: SOFI
SOFI is a popular retail name and a placeholder for the newer fintech names. ARKF is an ETF holding a basket. Potential day trade name with the retail euphoria around COIN and CRCL but must caution that Opex is a risky day to take on new longs. 15.5 is a major short call position in SOFI so above can run to 16, 17. Prior high 16.8. These are momentum names which will outperform to the downside should market turn risk-off.
