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  • Swing Trade Idea – July 1, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative
    Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong neutral global set-up

    ·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.46%  Currencies:  USA$ -.4% CAD +.14% YEN +.94%  BTC/USD -1.2%  Vix: 18.9

    ·       Stocks:
    NewsUSA:ISM PMI; JOLTS 10ET; Powell 930ET China: Caixin PMI 50.4 increasing
    Overview: Global indices are lower, and USA indices are slightly lower premarket. US$ lower and positive China data providing a boost to Gold and metals. Powell speaking at 930ET and PMI & JOLTS data may be market moving in what should be a low volume day. MAG7 are being led by AAPL, which bounced Monday on a report that a third party AI may be used for SIRI; TSLA leading to the downside with Trump/Elon spat reemerging and TSLA deliveries to be announced this week; NVDA and popular semisare lower after recent outperformance. LVS and WYNN higher on Macau revenue improving. Spec stocks: HOOD +15% Mon in play; Bitcoin lower weighing on miners like IREN, MARA, and BULL which popped Mon. SPX is still positioned with positive gamma with large 0DTE positions at 6235 and 6175, which may get hit intraday and likely a buy the dip and sell the rip day. Correlation is falling, so should index hold up, weakness in TSLA and NVDA and semis will lead to buying in other large cap stocks.  

    ·        

    ·       Simple bull bear levels: SPY 615, QQQ 547, IWM 215

    ·       SPY 617 Resistance 620 Support 615 614 612, QQQ 550.3 Resistance 552 555 Support 550 549 546 545
    Daily Expected Move. SPX(6238-6172), SPY(621-615), QQQ(555-548),  IWM(218-214)

    Stocks to watch
    LVS, WYNN, AAPL, TSLA, NVDA Speculative QBTS, HOOD, IREN, CLSK
    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    GDX, GLD, USO, SLV, ETHE, IBIT, XLY, ARKK, SMH, UUP, IWM

    S&P500 LVS, WYNN, SW, TSLA, WBD, COIN, AMD, MU

    Other QBTS, BULL, HOOD, RKLB, JOBY, BP, XPEV, IREN, QUBT, CLSK, OKLO, RIOT, MARA, HIMS, RGTI, SMR, ACHR




    AAPL

    AAPL potentially waking up from a long period of consolidation.  Large long call positions at 205, 210 and short calls at 220 setup a trade long > 205 with target 210 and above 210 target 220. Prior high 213 and 200sma 223.3 are levels to watch. Potential that AAPL can get a bid if the semis and hot MAG7 cool but caveat that AAPL has alot of baggage with low growth and tariffs forgotten but 90d postponement is up within a week.

     

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