Swing Trade Idea – July 3, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe,
Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral global
set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond +.38% Currencies: USA$ +.07% CAD +.03% YEN -.19% BTC/USD +0.07% Vix: 18.5
·
Stocks: SNPS+3.5% CDNS USA now allowing China to go to
China DDOG+8.8% added to S&P500 HOOD-1.6% was bid
up in anticipation
News: USA: NFP 830ET; S&P services 945ET ISM services
10ET
Overview: Global indices are flat ahead of the USA NFP and ISM
services PMI. IV is elevated ahead of non-farm payrolls with consensus is 100k.
GS is forecasting S&P to rise if NFP > 105k with +1.25% > 125k
and -1.5% 85k-105k. BigBeautifulBill is still being voted on in the House
and IMO if it fails to pass will add uncertainty to the markets. USA signed a
“deal” with Vietnam which lifted companies with mfg in Vietnam (e.g. NKE).
Tariff rate of 45% is not low but market likes deals:) IWM is leading premarket
yet. DDOG was added to the S&P500 and trading higher and HOOD which was bid
up in anticipation of being added is trading lower. MAG7 are led by META which
had pulled back with AAPL taking a breather after a large move. NFP ahead
of expectations likely positive for equity and US$ and negative for yields and
converse true. Small caps can lead if the NFP is better than expected. *** NFP
147k vs 106k; Private payrolls 74k vs 100k; Avg workweek hrs 34.2 vs
34.3; Reaction: SPY+ TLT- GLD- IWM flat Fed rate cut expectations in Sept
lower. Note that a positive move on the release of data is normal. Pay
attention at 10ET for ISM data and note that markets close at 13ET today and
are closed Friday ***
·
· Simple bull bear levels: SPY 620 QQQ 550 IWM 221
·
SPY 621.6 with Resistance at 622.5 and 625 with Support at 620,
617, and 615 QQQ 551.8 with Resistance at 555 and Support at 550, 549, and 545
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6270-6185) SPY(625-616) QQQ(555-547)
IWM(224-218)
Stocks to watch CDNS, SNPS, DDOG, META, AAPL, BABA Speculative
BULL,
OSCR, IONQ RGTI
Pre-800ET
Indices UNG, ARKG, IWM, SLV, QTUM, KRE, IWM, SLV, XBI, ARKX, KWEB, FXI,
GLD, GDX
S&P500 CDNS, FSLR, SNPS, CNC, HBAN, BMY
Other DDOG, OSCR, BULL, XPEV, OKLO, CNC, QBTS, SMR, CLSK, IREN, BABA, HOOD, IONQ, RGTI, RIO, JD
DDOG
DDOG is being added to the S&P500 replacing Juniper. Premarket 147 with high 152.5. Potential pullback day trade with potential pivot level 145 or 140 and target 150, 155.
