Swing Trade Idea – July 11, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight
negative global set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -0.6% Currencies: USA$ +.17% CAD -0.16% YEN -0.5% BTC/USD +4% Vix: 17.
·
Stocks: LEVI+7% EPS
Events: USA: Trump threatens Canada with 35% tariffs and
blanket tariffs of 15-20% on other trading partners with Aug 1 deadline; CDN:
Employment data 830ET
Equity: Global equities are weaker after the latest tariff salvo from
Trump with a 35% threat (excluding USMCA and 10% on energy and fertilizer).
MAG7 is led by AMZN NFLZ which are positive with the remainder lower inline
with QQQ. Bitcoin and Ethe made huge moves and lifted the associated names:
COIN, MSTR, BTDR, MARA, HUT, CLSK. Precious metals are also higher with gold,
silver, palladium moving higher. Oil higher on more chatter of Russia sanction
nonsense. Long bonds lower along with equity but nonfinancial assets higher is
unusual and suggests a rotation. Call skew is very elevated in bitcoin
basket indicating traders are leaning hard which can lead to blow-off top but
occurs at the end of a move. SPX6250 is a line in the sand with 6250 a target
below and 6200 stronger support, above 6250 6300 is resistance. The market is
increasingly less sensitive to the Trump tariff tweets so expect the vol
sellers to continue to step in on dips until it stops working which can open
the door to a larger drop. They love to use MAG7 to support the market so watch
Mag7 on the open to determine what has been chosen today
· Simple bull bear levels: SPY 622 QQQ 555 IWM 221
·
SPY 622.8 Resistance 625 630 Support 622.8 621 620 QQQ
553 Resistance 555 560 Support 552 551 550
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6323-6237) SPY(630-621.5) QQQ(559-552)
IWM(226.6-223)
Stocks to watch AMZN, COIN, IBIT, ETHE, LEVI,TLT, FCX Speculative
SBET,
MARA, CRWV, SOUN
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, IBIT, UNG, SLV, USO, GLD, GDX, MSOS, EFA, TLT, ARKG, IWM,
FEZ, EWC, KRE, XLB, XBI
S&P500 COIN, FCX, NCLH, PLTR, DAL
Other SBET, LEVI, BTDR, MARA, HUT, CLSK, RIOT, VG, LUNR, MSTR, IREN, BP, CRWV, SOUN, FCX, OSCR, IONQ, JOBY, QUBT
UUUU
UUUU is a highly speculative company involved in exploration of Uranium and rare earth metals. Recent call speculation with large positions at 7 which sets a target. CCJ is the largest company in the Uranium space and MP in rare earth metals, and have had large moves. One can consider UUUU or USAR as far more speculative and hence risky names in Uranium and Rare earth metals which are one of the current meme spaces in spite of Uranium and Rare Earths not being remotely rare, but such is wall street:)
