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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight positive global set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +.22% Currencies: USA$ -.08%, CAD +.1%, YEN -0.01%, BTC/USD -2.2%, Vix: 16.95

·       Stocks: BK +.3%, C+.16%, JPM-0.6%, WFC-1.8%, BLK-1.75%, ERIC-2%,  EPS NVDA+4.5% states it can now sell chips to China, AMD+4.78% higher along with MU – no official USA statement; TTD+14% added to S&P500;
Events: USA: CPI 830ET; Empire state Mfg China: Industrial production beat; retail sales missed CDN: CPI 830ET EUR: German economic sentiment improving.
Equity: USA indices higher pre-CPI driven by belief that NVDA and AMD will now be allowed to sell AI chips to China, reversing the prior export restriction rules. The USA has continuously flip flopped on this, which is material to semi companies. The semis are all lifting and the move in NVDA will likely suck the capital away from non-semis today. China economic data better than expected is lifting Chinese stocks with KWEB leading sector ETFs. Banks are generally lower post earnings reports which exceeded expectations but JPM earnings -14% y-y. Rare earth metals companies MP, USAR are lifting on news that AAPL is investing in MP. Bitcoin is pulling back today after the recent surge which is weighing on the usual suspects like MARA CLSK MSTR. TTD is up on being added to the S&P500 replacing ANSS. *** USA core CPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.3% CPI y/y 2.7% vs 2.6% Empire State Mfg 5.5 vs -8.3; CDN  CPI m/m 0.1% *** Reaction to CPI: $USD higher, bonds and equity unchanged. QQQ is the leading USA index and has moved to the top of the daily expected move. 

·       Simple bull bear levels: SPY 622, QQQ 553, IWM 221

·       SPY 627 Resistance 628 630 Support 625 624 620, QQQ 559.8  Resistance 560 Support 555 554 553
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6309-6228), SPY(629-620), QQQ(560-552), IWM(226-220)

Stocks to watch NVDA, AMD, TTD, IBIT, JPM, WFC Speculative MP, USAR,  RIOT
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, SMH, XLK, FXI, QTUM, QQQ, XME, GDX, ARKG, SLV, ARKK, SPY, IBIT, UNG, ETHE, XLF

S&P500 AMD, NVDA, SMCI, AVGO, MU, COIN, WFC 

Other KC, TTD, GDS, MP, CRWV, BABA, AAOI, BILI, USAR, GSK, AMD, NVDA, SMCI, BILI, JD, QS, XPEV, RIOT, WFC, MARA, MSTR, CLSK, RCAT, OKLO 

NVDA

NVDA burst higher on USA govt reversing export regulations to allow NVDA to sell H20 chips to China. There are large short call positions at 170 which makes it the line in the sand. NVDA is at the top of the weekly expected move which can act as resistance or above can lead to a squeeze. Market was not expecting a full Taco move; however the realization that China can produce their own equivalent chips meant that the export controls would effectively help China and hurt NVDA.  AMD is also a big beneficiary and other semis like AVGO are moving in unison. Note TSMC is reporting earnings this week and is the supplier to NVDA.