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  • Swing Trade Ideas – August 12, 2025

    Aug 12, 2025 Uncategorized Comments Off on Swing Trade Ideas – August 12, 2025

    Date:Aug 12, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government

    Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up

    • Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
    • Yields: 30Y Bond -0.19%  Currencies:  USA$ +0.04% CAD -0.13% YEN-0.23%  BTC/USD -0.52%  Vix: 17.1
    • Stocks:ONON+11% ASTS+11% SEA+8.5% CRWV-2.7% OKLO-1%      EPS 
      Events: USA:CPI 830ET AUD: 25bps rate cut
      Equity:  Global indices mixed with USA flat ahead of CPI print. Trump delayed China tariff deadline shockingly again which is boosting the mainland and Hong Kong indexes. Volatility is elevated ahead of the CPI print. Core CPI expected to be 0.3% GS expected reaction: 0.25%-3% SPX+0.7%;  <0.25% SPX+0.5%; 0.35%-0.4% SPX-0.5%; >4% SPX-1.25%. IV usually declines post CPI which can lift markets on an inline print.  IWM, retail, home builders and spec tech may out outperform on a lower CPI. MAG7 in general are more resilient to interest rates and may outperform on a higher CPI. MAG7 are led by TSLA which has back in play with option traders and AAPL is the laggard after last week’s pump.  Bitcoin is pulling back after the weekend pump on Trump action. INTC is higher after CEO visited Trump. ONON, ASTS, SEA and CRWV are the post earnings name to watch for continuation or reversion. MSOS (yesterday’s idea) continues to run, pay attention at 5. The SPX is positive gamma hence look for bounces should CPI come in hot and reversals on positive spikes should daily expected moves get reached.

      SPY 635.6 Resistance 638 640  Support 635 634 QQQ 572 Resistance 575 578  Support 572 570 567
      Daily Expected Move. SPX(6428-6319)  SPY(641-630) QQQ(578-567)  IWM(223-217)

      Stocks to watch  TSLA INTC AMD  TLT IBIT  Speculative ASTS ONON SEA
      Pre-800ET
      Indices MSOS ETHE XRT SLV    UNG USO IBIT GLD TLT KWEB

    S&P500  INTC SBUX

    Other ASTS ONON SEA TME SBET INTC PONY SOUN CRWV RGTI IONQ HIMS JOBY OKLO TEM IREN

    TSLA

    TSLA is back in play with option traders despite poor fundamental reports. Large option positioning at 340 form a bull/bear level. Daily expected move 350-327. Short term TSLA is extended after 3 days of pumping and overbought on 4hr chart so caution warranted.

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