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Swing Trade Ideas – August 15, 2025

Date:Aug 15, 2025

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up

• Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
• Yields: 30Y Bond +0.0%  Currencies:  USA$ -0.39% CAD +0.14% YEN+0.63%  BTC/USD +0.98%  Vix: 15.6
• Stocks:NU+10.8% HSAI+8.9%   QUBT-2.5% SNDK-8.7% AMAT-12.9% GLOB-14%  EPS 
  Events: USA: Retail sales; Empire state mfg 830ET; Industrial production 915ET; UofM consumer sentiment 10ET  JP: Industrial production improved China: Industrial production, Retail sales, Investment weakening
  Equity: USA indices flat ahead of USA data with market sensitized to data after with Fed rate cut expectations on the mind. Today is monthly Opex which is composed of an open expiration (index) and end of day (single stocks). Single stocks are call heavy so may see some interesting moves in the afternoon. Week after Opex tends to have increased volatility. Hedgefund 13Fs are in the news and fintwit is excited that Buffet, Tepper have added UNH which had led to a chase. Buffet also added to STZ, LEN, NUE, POOL and reduced AAPL, BAC . Einhorn bought CNC which is lifting the stock. INTC is moving higher one report that USA govt may invest in the troubled company.  AMAT weak guidance led to the stock moving lower 3x the expected move and weighing on similar companies: LRCX, ASML, KLAC and will be negative for the SMH. Quantum stocks are lower post QUBT earnings. MSOS is continuing to be strong with speculation that Trump can change the Federal classification of Cannabis. RBLX lower on a lawsuit by Louisina.  It’s a Trump market and he is meeting with Putin today and market may react to his comments which are likely that it was a great meeting but unlikely that Ukraine will be resolved. Next week has the potential for increased market volatility with 6500 upside and 6400 downside likely targets so risk > reward and hedges are cheap. *** Retail sales inline 0.5% m/m; import prices 0.4% m/m vs 0% Reaction: TLT, US$ lower, equity unchanged
  
  SPY 646.5 Resistance 647.5 648 650   Support 645 643 640 QQQ 579.8 Resistance 580 585 Support 579 575
  Daily Expected Move. SPX(6500-6436)  SPY(648-641.7) QQQ(585-575)  IWM(231-225.6)
  
  Stocks to watch  UNH CNC INTC GOOGL  AMAT RBLX   Speculative TIGR NU CAVA
  Pre-800ET
  Indices MSOS UNG ETHE KWEB XLV IBIT ARKG EFA IGV IWM   SMH USO SLV US$ TLT XLK

S&P500  UNH CNC INTC AMAT LRCX

Other NU UNH HSAI TIGR JOBY OSCR CNC INTC BHP XPEV PDD GLXY GLOB AMAT SNDK RBLX LRCX CRWV HIMS QUBT QBTS ALAB JD RGTI IONQ

AMAT

AMAT sold down on a weaker than expected guidance. Move lower which is 3x greater than expected move. Potential bounce if > 165 with target 170 and 175 or continuation lower to 160. The large put positions are 180 and may get a lift next week if those positions close. LRCX, ASML KLAC are lower in sympathy and potential bounces. SMH is also lower and potential bounce if buy the dip sentiment is alive and well.