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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.03%, Currencies: USA$ +0.2%, CAD -0.03%, YEN+0.01%, BTC/USD +0.23%, Vix: 18.45

·       Stocks: TGT-9.7%, EL-7.5%, ZIM-5.5%,  ADI+3.3%, TJX+3.6%, LOW+3.1%, FUT+2.7% EPS  
Events: USA: 20Y bond auction 13ET; FOMC meeting 14ET UK: CPI higher than expectations EUR: CPI inline
Equity: USA indices are slightly lower post Tues drop led by large cap tech and AI related names and relative outperformance by small caps and value names. QQQ is at the bottom of the weekly expected move so in theory oversold where look for bounce or breakdown. META is well below the weekly expected move and now testing the earnings gap so look for a bounce or breakdown into the gap. MAG7 are led by NVDA which reports earnings next week. Semis are mixed with MU lower on news that Samsung memory chips passed NVDA tests and is now competition as well as USA govt discussing taking ownership positions in companies like MU, TSMC, Samsung that are receiving Chip Act funding. ADI is on earnings beat and guidance and lifting some of the non-AI names. Retail is also a mixed bag with TGT outsized move lower with a new CEO, TJX higher on a beat, EL lower on weak demand and tariff impact  and LOW higher on less bad results. Vix expiration at the open today can lead to volatility as can FOMC meeting minutes at 14ET. Bond auctions at 13ET may move long yields and impact the equity market. Hedging is increasing into Fri Jackson Hole and NVDA earnings next week which can increase QQQ moves. SPX 0DTE 6400 is a bull/bear level to watch with 6300 puts building below and 6500 calls resistance.

SPY 639.14 Resistance 640 643 645 Support 638 635, QQQ 568 Resistance 570 572 575 Support 565
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6444-6378), SPY(643-636), QQQ(574-565),  IWM(228-224)

Stocks to watch NVDA, TJX, LOW, ADI, TGT, EL, META Speculative FUTU, TIGR, TEM
Pre-800ET
Indices MSOS, ETHE, USO, GDX, GLD, IBIT, XLE, UNG, ARKX, ARKK, SLV, QQQ

S&P500 ADI, TGT, EL, MU, PLTR, AMD, INTC

Other TJX, FUTU, TIGR, UPST, NU, BMNR, CRCL, JHX, EL, MU, ZIM, TEM, OSCR, NBIS, CRWV, ALAB, SOUN, JOBY, OKLO, BIDU

META

META is testing the earnings gap where one can look for either breakdown or bounce. No obvious news for the decline and may be due to lower liquidity as funds derisk ahead of Jackson Hole and NVDA earnings. Should 745 break, there is support at 740, but below can accelerate. Look for 750 as resistance on bounce. META is 2 standard deviations below the weekly expected move, hence oversold and a candidate for a bounce, with the caveat that oversold can continue for longer than you can stay solvent!