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Date: Aug 22, 2025

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.01% Currencies: USA$ +0.09%, CAD -0.11%, YEN-0.24%, BTC/USD+.06%, Vix: 18.55

·       Stocks: INTU-5.8%, BJ-0.9%, ROST+2.5%, UI+8.4%, ZM+4.6% EPS  
Events: USA: Powell Jackson Hole Speech 10ET
Equity: Global indices are slightly higher ahead of Powell’s 10ET Jackson Hole speech. China stocks strong with DeepSeek releasing a new model which runs on domestic chips. BABA, PDD, NIO and XPEV are names making large gains. MAG7 are led by GOOGL which is contracted by META for servers. NVDA is lower on news that they are stopping production of H20 China only chips which follows China  govt dissuading use of USA chips. China is a major revenue source for USA semi companies and AMD is lower in sympathy. Premarket the speculative names are leading with IWM leading SPY and QQQ. Powell speech is leading to an increase in implied volatility and buying of protective puts which sets up a binary event with a positive Powell reaction leading to a test of 6250-6450 and 6500 into next week and downside support 6300 and should 6300 break, there is potential to move as low as 6150 next week.  Dovish Powell should benefit the speculative names like IWM, biotech and a hawkish likely will be the converse. US$ usually with a dovish Powell which can benefit foreign assets. Long bonds are a tough call as potential for long yields to rise with a dovish Powell.  Currently IV is elevated for today but less so further out in time and risk is an increase in longer term volatility, which is not priced in.

SPY 637.5 Resistance 639 640 642  Support 636 635 630 QQQ 564.8 Resistance 565 566 567 Support 560 567
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6433-6306)  SPY(642-629) QQQ(570-557)  IWM(230-222)

Stocks to watch GOOGL, ROST, ZM, NVDA, INTU, AMD Speculative PDD, TIGR
Pre-800ET
Indices KWEB, ETHE, IWM, MSOS, USO, ARKK, ARKG, XLY, XLF, GDX, UNG, SLV, GLD, IGV, XLK

S&P500 MU, GOOGL, NVDA, SMCI, AMD

Other ACM, BHVN, PDD, TIGR, NVO, RBLX, XPEV, SBET, ANET

KWEB

China names are starting to outperform with today’s news being DeepSeek releasing a new AI model which runs on China chips versus USA chips like NVDA. KWEB is a tech heavy ETF that may be suitable for a swing, potentially on pullbacks to 20ema. A dovish Powell may lead to a US$ pullback, which can be positive for foreign equity, but caveat that the converse is also possible. There is also risk from further Trump tariff chatter.