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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.24% Currencies: USA$-0.3%, CAD +.19%, YEN+0.21%, BTC/USD+2.25%, Vix: 16.5

·       Stocks: AAVGO+10.9%, IOT+11.5%, PATH+4%, LULU-19% EPS
Events: USA: Non-farm payrolls 830ET CDN: Employment 830ET; PMI 10ET
Equity: Global indices higher ahead of non-farm payrolls. USA indices surged Thurs driven by the an afternoon SPX record 0DTE surge. Interest rate sensitive sectors like home builders and regional banks popped.  Theme appears that the payroll numbers will force the Fed to cut rates which I assume means they are looking for a weak NFP report or at least negative revisions. The current logic leads to risk if the jobs report is positive. Volatility is elevated into NFP, and an unwind of vol on a neutral report usually is positive for markets; however, very outsized data may lead to outsized moves in either direction. SPX has risen to the 6505 level, where the JPM collar, which expires Sept 30, in theory provides resistance. MAG7 are led by AVGO and TSLA. AVGO had good earnings but levitated more than the expected move on a report of a large contract with OpenAI for custom chips in 2026. Positive for AVGO, but adds to concern that NVDA can lose revenue as customers move to dedicated solutions. NVDA and AMD are trading lower premarket in spite of index strength. The move in AVGO can lead to similar behavior as when GOOGL made a huge move, it sucks up all the capital and remainder of S&P can be muted. TSLA is trading higher on the expectation of launching a driverless robot taxi. LULU pummelled post earnings with guidance may be company specific or affect other companies in the sector. Bitcoin has a bounce potentially with the US$ lower with the meme that weak jobs report leads to Fed cuts. *** NFP 22k vs 75k; UE rate 4.3% CDN jobs -65.5k vs 4.9k; UE rate 7.1% vs 7% Reaction: Equity and bonds higher == Bad news is good news! 
SPY 650.1  Resistance 655 Support 650 647 645, QQQ 578.5 Resistance 580 Support 577.5 575 574 570
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6551-6453), SPY(654-644), QQQ(581-570),  IWM(240-233)

Stocks to watch AVGO, KWEB, LULU, NVDA, AMD Speculative IOT, PATH
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, IBIT, KWEB, SMH, MSOS, IGV, XLK, QQQ, GDX, ARKK, QTUM, US$, XLE, XLF

S&P500 AVGO, TSLA, MU, LULU

Other IOT, AVGO, BNTX, PATH, IREN, ETHA, CLS, SMR, TIGR, BABA, IBIT, BMNR, SBET, TSLA, CRWV, MARA, MU, HOOD, LULU, NVDA

LEN

Latest market meme is job market weakness is leading to Fed rate cuts, which benefits interest rate-sensitive industries like home builders and regional banks. ITB and XHB are ETFs and LEN is one of the larger home builders. Risks to this move is upcoming inflation prints, which can dampen the move along with houses still very expensive and if one believes jobs are rolling over is it really good for housing. However algos are simple, if Fed cuts, monkeys but housing, small caps, regional banks, retail (ones that haven’t reported disasters like Lulu). Caveat that home builders are above the weekly expected move, hence expect dips, so take care chasing.