.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight positive set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.21% Currencies: USA$+0.21%, CAD -0.14%, YEN-0.45%,  BTC/USD+0.32%  Vix: 15.95

·       Stocks: AAPL downgrade $250 tgt; NVDA upgrade $210 tgt; NBIS $1B offering $92.5
Events: USA: CPI & UE claims 830ET EUR: ECB rate decision, no change expected
Equity: USA and global indices slightly higher ahead of CPI print. AI was the S&P driver Wed. Premarket MAG7 are led by TSLA AMZN NVDA.  NVDA, AVGO are above upper weekly expected move and AAPL well below. AAPL is at support and one to watch. Implied volatility is elevated into the CPI print and expect an inline to lower print to lead to market higher and conversely hotter print to lower prices with SPX6500 the key level as potential for a much larger move below. Gold, silver are lower premarket and bitcoin higher and China is outperforming USA premarket. In theory, lower/inline inflation should lead to lower yields, lower US$ and be positive for small caps, biotech however the reaction to the lower PPI print didn’t align hence will be interesting what the reaction is today. *** CPI m/m 0.4% vs 0.3% Initial jobless claims 263k vs 235k Reaction: US$ lower, TLT higher, Equity lower, Gold and Silver higher. Move in equity insignificant, should it pullback on the open, odds favor a drop in volatility leading to a bounce as long as SPX  > 6505.
 

·       SPY 653.7 Resistance 654.35 655 657 Support 652.28 651 650, QQQ 582.6  Resistance 585 Support 580 579 577.6

·       Daily Expected Move. SPX(6576-6488), SPY(657-648), QQQ(586-575),  IWM(240-233)

Stocks to watch ORCL, NVDA, TSLA, BABA, AMD Speculative BMNR, CRWV
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, UNG, KWEB, IGV, MAGS, XLK, ARKK, IBIT, QQQ, NUKZ, GLD, SLV, GDX, ARKX, XLE

S&P500 SNPS, CNC, MU, ORCL, TSLA, UPS

Other BMNR, BABA, CRWV, SMR, JOBY, HIMS, CRCL, SOUN, SBET, IONQ, IREN, RNA, GME, NVO

ADBE

ADBE is reporting after the close. Expected move +/- 32. ADBE has moved lower 10/11 prior earnings with 7 outside the expected move.  Can consider diagonal or flies to trade directionally and take advantage of IV percentile which is 100%. IV skew is actually tilted bullish as traders are maybe looking for a positive surprise.