Swing Trade Ideas – October 1, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global
Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Negative set-up
· Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
· Yields: 30Y Bond -0.11% Currencies: USA$ 0% CAD -0.12% YEN+.53% BTC/USD+1.76% Vix: 17.85
·
Stocks: NKE+3.6% EPS
Events: USA: ADP jobs 915ET ISM PMI 10ET EUR: CPI inline
to higher CDN: BOC minutes 1330ET
Equity: USA indices lower post late day surge Tues into close. The media
is abuzz with the impact of the govt shutdown which may result in a delay of
the non-farm payroll report Fri. The ADP jobs report today will take on more
importance as will the PMI reports which give a hint to the state of the USA
economy ex massive spend on datacenters. First day of month and quarter means
auto flows into 401ks which is supportive and also potential rotation by
discretionary managers. The trend higher in precious metals continues
premarket and bitcoin is higher, lifting all the usual suspects like COIN,
CLSK, MARA etc. NKE is higher post earnings, which were better than expected
but still have lots of issues. NKE is a laggard so can watch whether it is a
rotation candidate. Upgrades: CELH, FCX, FIS, SMTC Downgrades: CART, IMO, OKLO,
SMR, SPOT, U. MAG7 generally lower with MSFT leading to the downside and TSLA
on watch for deliveries expected this week. NVDA is still above 185 which is
the bull/bear level. Oil is lower on supply increase concerns but natgas is
higher so watch the natgas producers. LAC (lithium) has spiked on more govt
investment news; MU is lower after 2 strong days potentially on report that
Samsung/Hynix signed MOU with OpenAi to supply memory to Stargate. Any news
involving OpenAI will cause a stock to move:) SPX 0DTE is well supported >
6600 which sets a bull/bear level with largest support level 6625 and
resistance 6700. Positive gamma means dips bought and pops sold absent
major news with 10ET PMI data or shutdown news the catalysts today
SPY 663.7 with Resistance at 664, 665, and 666 and Support at 663 and 660 QQQ
598 with Resistance at 599, 600, and 605 Support at 597 and 595
·
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6728-6649) SPY(670-662)
QQQ(605-596) IWM(244-240)
Stocks to watch NKE, COIN, TSLA, NVDA, MU, Speculative ASTS, JOBY, QS, RGTI
Pre-800ET
Indices ETHE, IBIT, UNG, SLV, GDX, EFA, MSOS, XLF, IWM, ARKK, ARKG, SMH, XLK,
QQQ, IWM, SPY, XLC, TLT
S&P500 AES, NKE, COIN, MU
Other AES, ASTS, BMNR, NKE, COIN, MSTR, CLSK, MARA, RIOT, MU, JOBY, QS, RGTI, HOOD, SOUN
PFE
PFE has been a disaster stock post Covid surge with concerns about the pipeline, tariff risk and antagonism from the Kennedy. Bounce post meeting with Trump where a fuzzy statement on reducing drug pricing was made. All large drug companies bounced as a reaction. Short term extended but potentially buyable on a weekly breakout (TBD) or pullback to 50sma. Not an exciting name with a lot of hair but it does carry a 6.75% yield but dividend coverage is a risk. PE 13.55 is not cheap for a company which has been in a decline but potential for rotation for investors loaded to the gills with AI.
