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  • Swing Trade Ideas – October 1, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Negative set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond -0.11%  Currencies:  USA$ 0% CAD -0.12% YEN+.53%  BTC/USD+1.76%  Vix: 17.85

    ·         Stocks: NKE+3.6%  EPS
    Events: USA: ADP jobs 915ET ISM PMI 10ET EUR: CPI inline to higher CDN: BOC minutes 1330ET
    Equity: USA indices lower post late day surge Tues into close. The media is abuzz with the impact of the govt shutdown which may result in a delay of the non-farm payroll report Fri. The ADP jobs report today will take on more importance as will the PMI reports which give a hint to the state of the USA economy ex massive spend on datacenters. First day of month and quarter means auto flows into 401ks which is supportive and also potential rotation by discretionary managers.  The trend higher in precious metals continues premarket and bitcoin is higher, lifting all the usual suspects like COIN, CLSK, MARA etc. NKE is higher post earnings, which were better than expected but still have lots of issues. NKE is a laggard so can watch whether it is a rotation candidate. Upgrades: CELH, FCX, FIS, SMTC Downgrades: CART, IMO, OKLO, SMR, SPOT, U. MAG7 generally lower with MSFT leading to the downside and TSLA on watch for deliveries expected this week. NVDA is still above 185 which is the bull/bear level. Oil is lower on supply increase concerns but natgas is higher so watch the natgas producers. LAC (lithium) has spiked on more govt investment news; MU is lower after 2 strong days potentially on report that Samsung/Hynix signed MOU with OpenAi to supply memory to Stargate. Any news involving OpenAI will cause a stock to move:) SPX 0DTE is well supported > 6600 which sets a bull/bear level with largest support level 6625 and resistance 6700.  Positive gamma means dips bought and pops sold absent major news with 10ET PMI data or shutdown news the catalysts today

    SPY 663.7 with Resistance at 664, 665, and 666 and Support at 663 and 660 QQQ 598 with Resistance at 599, 600, and 605  Support at 597 and 595

    ·         Daily Expected Move. SPX(6728-6649)  SPY(670-662) QQQ(605-596)  IWM(244-240)

    Stocks to watch
    NKE, COIN, TSLA, NVDA, MU, Speculative ASTS, JOBY, QS, RGTI
    Pre-800ET
    Indices
    ETHE, IBIT, UNG, SLV, GDX, EFA, MSOS, XLF, IWM, ARKK, ARKG, SMH, XLK, QQQ, IWM, SPY, XLC, TLT

    S&P500  AES, NKE, COIN, MU

    Other AES, ASTS, BMNR, NKE, COIN, MSTR, CLSK, MARA, RIOT, MU, JOBY, QS, RGTI, HOOD, SOUN





    PFE

    PFE has been a disaster stock post Covid surge with concerns about the pipeline,  tariff risk and antagonism from the Kennedy. Bounce post meeting with Trump where a fuzzy statement on reducing drug pricing was made. All large drug companies bounced as a reaction. Short term extended but potentially buyable on a weekly breakout (TBD) or pullback to 50sma. Not an exciting name with a lot of hair but it does carry a 6.75% yield but dividend coverage is a risk. PE 13.55 is not cheap for a company which has been in a decline but potential for rotation for investors loaded to the gills with AI.

     

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