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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Negative  set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond +0.11%  Currencies:  USA$ +0.21% CAD -0.20% YEN0.43%  BTC/USD-2.6%  Vix:19.75

·         Stocks: PLTR-8% NCLH-9% SHOP-4.4%  UBER -4.4% ZTS-12% ETN-4% UPWK+19% SPOT+5%   EPS
Events:USA:Fed speakers
Equity: Global indices lower with a classic risk-off set-up. No major news but there are liquidity concerns visible with rising SOFR rates but Vix futures, MOVE and high yield spreads are not raising big concerns yet. Vix > 20 will be a warning as will VVIX rising. Today looks like a small unwind in the leadership factors of AI and profitless tech/high valuation. PLTR reported good earnings but is selling down and is a very expensive name and popular retail. MAG7 are all red, led by NVDA and TSLA.  RSP is outperforming SPY by moving down less, so potential for rotation into laggards and out of the momentum names. The retail faves have leveraged single stock ETFs which can accelerate moves in either direction.  SPX 0DTE looks supported at 6715 and below with short put sellers so likely that the weakness premarket leads to intraday bounce at some point unless there is deterioration in liquidity. Vix and VVIX are the signals to watch, currently VVIX is not rising so no signs yet for additional hedging premarket. PLTR has moved lower greater than the expected move so look for continuation or reversal. NVDA and TSLA are the 2 highest volume option names and ones to watch today.

Levels: Members only

Stocks to watch SPOT, US$, PLTR, UBER, NVDA, NCLH   Speculative UPWK, HIMS
Indices US$, TLT, XLP, ARKK, IBIT, NUKZ, QTUM, XME, SMH, ARKF,

S&P500 EXC, ZTS, NCLH, PLTR, UBER, HOOD, MU, AMD, SMCI, COIN, TSLA, ORCL, APH, NVDA, AAPL, UNH

Other UPWK, HIMS, BIDU, EXC, SRPT, NVTS, ZTS, NCLH, UUUU, PLTR, SNDK, CSIQ, CIFR, FLNC, NBIS 

SPY

SPY lower premarket and closed the previous gap up.  It is below the daily expected move, hence oversold. There are short put sellers with 0DTE SPX options that are at 6715 which set 670 as potential low but 675 is a good line in the sand for long above and potentially short below. So far IMO this looks like a liquidity shortage and not a major break. Watch Vix and VVIX for signs whether the drop is temporary. First target on bounce is 678 and then 680. Target on breakdown is 670, which is the SPY put wall and closes an unfilled gap.