.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – negative  set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -1.06%  Currencies:  USA$ -0.96% CAD +0.67% YEN +0.19%  BTC/USD-4.67%  Vix:19.01

·         Events: USA: Global indices lower with Trump threatening high tariffs on countries that oppose him on taking Greenland and Europe threatening counter tariffs. Trump is speaking at Davos Wed. Potential for SCOTUS ruling on legality of emergency tariffs. Market is expecting tariffs to be ruled illegal but probability is WH will issue new tariffs using a different legal argument. Retailers and importers may react.

·         Stock News:MMM-4% FAST-5.4% USB+1.1% KEY-1.5%   earnings; 

·          Equity: Global indices lower with Greenland threats of USA tariffs and European counter tariffs increasing uncertainty. SPY has fallen to the 50sma and QQQ to the 100sma which are levels which can be used as references. SPY 680 is the put wall which in theory can provide support. SPY weekly expected move is 681.2 so SPY is statistically stretched. Vix is now > Jan Vix futures which expire Wed. Institutions were hedging last week, selling calls and buying puts in the SPX and buying Vix calls ahead of Greenland shenanigans. Statistically setup for a bounce with potentially Vix expiration Wed, Trump Davos speech and PCE Thurs potential catalysts. Downside risk is an escalation that causes SPX to fall below 6800 as large put positions at 6800, 6775, 6750 lead to acceleration. Trump is very attuned to  the stock market and historically has reversed decisions which leads to strong bounces. MAGS are led by NFLX which reports after the close with GOOGL and AMZN leading to downside as traders are maybe locking up profits. Precious metals and energy names are higher with natgas notably higher and silver continuing to rampage. US$ and 10Y bonds are notably lower so setup is similar to the April tariff drop where equity, bonds and US$ fell in unison.  RSP is stronger than SPY indicating that MAGS selling is still an issue. One of the European threats is taxes on USA social media companies which get advertising revenue in Europe.  Premarket the traditional defensives XLP, XLU, XLV are outperforming and IWM is still outperforming QQQ so it continues to be rotational for now.
Daily Expected Move. SPX(7005-6874)  SPY(698-685) QQQ(626-616)  IWM(268-263)

Stocks to watch NFLX SLV UNG   GOOGL NVDA COIN  Speculative CRML HL BMNR RCAT
Indices UNG SLV GDX GLD XLE XME   ETHE IBIT ARKF ARKK ARKX ARKG MSOS FEZ QQQ TLT SPY

S&P500 NEM NOW  APP COIN SMCI TSLA AMD NKE
Other CRML IAG HL AG B USAR   BMNR SBET SERV GLXY RCAT FLNC RIOT APLD 

IWM

IWM has been the leading USA index since Jan 1. Pulling back with the global equity market. Price is at a major volume level and just above the 260 major option level.  One can use 260 as a pivot level with long above and below potential for 258, 255  with the higher volume levels serving as targets.  IWM is outperforming QQQ premarket which suggests that the rotation out of MAGS is still continuing. Note IV is elevated so one can consider spreads or flies if using options.