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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – negative  set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.16% Currencies: USA$ +0.76%, CAD -0.19%, YEN -0.76%, BTC/USD+0.71%, Vix:21.85

·       Events:USA: USA/Israel Iran attack ongoing, oil shipment paused;  USA PMI 10ET

·       Stock News: VG+12.6%, BRK/B -1.2%, NCLH-6.9%, AAON-1.6%     Earnings  

·       Equity: Global indices lower after USA/Israel attacked Iran and Iran retaliated. SPY overnight low bounced off 675 put wall and bounced above 678.2 positive gamma levels, which are reference levels for the day. QQQ is below the 600 put wall which can serve as an upper pivot level, and 595 overnight low can act as a lower pivot level.  Market maker positioning is negative gamma, which means dips will be sold and rips will be bought which can lead to large intraday moves. Traders are positioned with puts below price which can paradoxically lead to SPX lower to 6600 while below 6800 or alternatively bounce to 6900+.  Oil, gold, US$, and defense stocks are higher as would be expected. WTI has traded in the range 75-70, which can be used as pivot levels. Oil concern is that shipping is shut down due to insurance cost and potential for damage. It is unknown whether there will be escalation of the conflict and for how long it can continue. Vix is trading above Vix futures and Vix futures are close to inversion i.e. March > April. This indicates short-term concern with risk of a Vix spike that will be accompanied by an equity drop. Options are expensive, especially puts so spreads or flys are strategies to consider. MAGS are all lower with MSFT outperforming and AVGO lagging. Semis are weak and IMO there may be concerns that the Gulf countries which have discussed spending billions to build data centers may be affected. Travel related stocks like airlines, cruise, hotels are lower with NCLH providing weaker guidance and maybe USA attacking Iran or Venezuela gives cruisers cold feet. Interesting today is strength in fertilizer names like CF and MOS. Challenge is that war related names are stretched and can continue if the war continues but a resolution will lead to a sharp pullback and potentially a sharp reversal in the oversold names, question is the timing.

Stocks to watch APA, CF, GLD, MSFT, AAPL, AVGO Speculative FANG, ARM
Indices /CL, UNG, XLE, GLD, GDX, UUP, SLV, ARKG, KWEB, SMH, ARKK, FEZ, EFA, QTUM, XLY, MAGS

S&P500 APA, CF, OXY, MOS, CTRA, EOG, DVN, FANG, XOM, AES, CCL, RCL, NCHL, UAL, DAL, SMCI, LUV, EXPE, CE
Nasi FANG, BKR, PLTR, TMUS, ARM, MAR, APP, ASML, BKNG, MRVL, MU, PYPL, LRCX, ABNB

QQQ

QQQ put the wall is 600, which becomes a pivot level for today. Overnight low 595 is a downside target, and 605, 607 are upside targets. Would be normal for the index to bounce at the open as shorts cover and then its a question of whether bounce continues for the day or sellers step in or there is Iran news. There is a PM mfg I report at 10ET which may move markets, but its probably insignificant relative to Iran. Within QQQ PLTR is higher due to defense connection and MSFT is the top performing MAGS. AAPL potentially can get a bid as a defensive name.