.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight positive  set-up

      •        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

      •        Yields: 30Y Bond -0.0%  Currencies:  USA$ +0.39% CAD -0.40% YEN +0.01%  BTC/USD+2.7%  Vix:24.95

      •        Events:USA: PCE, Durable goods 830ET; Consumer sentiment 10ET CDN: Employment 830ET
Stock News:RBRK+1.3%  ADBE-7.7% ULTA-7.4% LEN-0.7% S-3.7%    Earnings
Equity:  Global indices pulled back overnight but are bouncing early morning as shorts monetize ahead of US PCE which is usually  a big econ data release when USA is not at war. Volatility is elevated into the data and a release of the data can provide a bounce assuming it’s not substantially higher than expected. Market is extremely well hedged which has been supporting the US markets and can lead to a bounce. QQQ is at the put wall which is a key decision level. IMO the index equity trade is really an oil trade with equity moving inverse. Credit conditions are worsening with bond volatility (MOVE) rising, and private credit index weakening which is weighing on the financials. With no obvious end in site for the USA/Israel Iran war the strength is in energy and war related sectors like chemicals, fertilizer and the rest appear to be short squeezes which are possible today. Pre 830ET the short squeeze names are higher i.e. ARKs, TSLA, IWM and the AI bros NVDA ORCL PLTR. May continue once the market opens for a scalp or just a pump dump TBD. MAGS are generally higher ex-META which is lower after a report that it’s latest AI model was not performing as well as Gemini. Bitcoin, ETHE are higher, which fits with the premarket short squeeze setup and will lift the MSTR, BMNR  type companies, the miners and likely related companies like HOOD.  ADBE, ULTA, LEN, S lower post earnings, can look for bounces or continuation once the market opens. Once the post PCE market move is over, pay attention to oil as the compass for market direction and be wary that the white house will be using the tweet machine to manipulate oil and equity prices if oil continues higher or equity lower *** PCE 2.8% y-y; Durable goods 0% vs 1.1% GDP Q/Q estimate 0.7% vs 1.4% lower Canadian UE rate 6.7% vs 6.6% Minimal reaction by market, small bounce in short term bonds.

      •       
Stock TSLA NVDA MU MOS   ADBE ULTA META    Speculative MSTR CRCK
Indices IBIT ETHE UNG ARKK SMH KWEB ARKF IWM ARKG QQQ  /CL SLV GDX TLT

S&P500 LUV CE LIN LW TDY MU MOS APD MSI REGN   ADBE ULTA LYB FFIV SRE META CCI FDX EMN DVN
Other MSTR CRCL VOD IONQ RKLB IREN NBIS BP TSM SHEL 

MOO

MOO is an agriculture ETF. The Iran war is reducing production and supply of fertilizers which is leading to higher commodity prices and higher stock prices of some of the companies. MOS, NTR, CF, CTVA, ADM are individual names and one can look at individual commodities. MOO also holds companies like DE, TSCO not pure play but a simple way to trade the impact of war on the AGG space. Risk is peace but IMO the damage is done and a dip is an opportunity.