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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up

      •        Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

      •        Yields: 30Y Bond -0.11%  Currencies:  USA$+0.10% CAD -0.06% YEN -0.14%  BTC/USD-0.09%  Vix:20.04

      •        Events USA: Empire mfg, Beige book; Trump sending more troops to middle east, threatens to fire Powell if stays on Fed past the end of his term as chairman
Stock News:    ASML-4.3% JBHT-0.6%  BAC+1% MS+2.7%   Earnings 
Equity: US indices are flat but major global indices are lower premarket. Oil, US$, yields slightly higher is a negative catalyst.  Vix expiration at the open can increase volatility in either direction.  USA is meeting with Iran Thurs and USA is sending additional troops to the middle east, so far equity market  is optimistic but volumes have been subdued. ASML is the big name that reported good earnings but trading lower and other semi equipment names like AMAT LRCX are trading lower in sympathy . Memory names taking a breather which is leading to SMH lower. Software positive with MSFT, ORCL, PLTR higher as hedgefunds unwind shorts. HOOD higher as SEC eliminates the pattern day trading rule to encourage more day trading and more revenue for HOOD. The speculative/high short interest names are continuing to rise premarket with quantum, fintech and ARKK style names rising. Indices and many MAGS are above weekly expected move, hence short term extended so stalling/pullback would not be a surprise but volume is light so anything is possible. TSM reporting after the close is market moving for the semi space.
 

      •        Stock AVGO HOOD MS  IGV   ASML MU NVDA   Speculative  IONQ SOFI  AAOI
Indices IGV UNG UFO USO ARKK XLF  SLV GDX GLD SMH KWEB EFA XLE TLT

S&P500 HOOD FSLR NKE MS SMCI AVGO NOW UBER ORCL   MU SNDK WDC LRCX AMAT NEM STX AMD
Other  IONQ OKLO ASX SOFI NET AFRM SAP CRCL RELX RDDT  CAR ASML LI XPEV GFI NBIS MRVL AAOI DB JD IREN

TSM

TSM is the largest semi mfg in the world and reports BMO Thurs. TSM reports monthly revenue so no surprises expected but forecast for revenue and capital spending will be significant for the semi market as they are at the front of the supply chain.

Expected move +/-18 IV 76% this week is conducive for calendar/diagonal to trade directionally or potentially double diagonal to trade neutral. Last 4 earnings reports TSM has moved < 5%