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Swing Trade Ideas – August 20, 2026

Date: August 20, 2026

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup- Pre-730ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong –neutral set-up

• Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin
• Yields: 30Y Bond -0.43%  Currencies:  USA$-0.1% CAD +0.32% YEN -0.19%  BTC/USD+0.5%  Vix:17.7
• Events USA: 30Y auction 13ET  CDN: PPI 830ET
• Stock News FUTU+10% DE+2.3% BILL+1% BULL+11%    BABA-2% NTES-3.3% WMT-5.5% AAP-14%     EPS
  
  Comments Global indices are slightly lower premarket with USA indices lower. USA markets popped with Bessent doubling purchase of bonds which reduced longer term yields but premarket yields are bouncing back perhaps with WTIC higher as nothing has improved visa vis the SoH.  Korea is higher with Samsung announcing a special dividend which can help the memory names and semi group which sold down Wed.  Earnings: WMT lower on slowing growth despite earnings beat; DE modestly higher on a beat; BABA lower on an earnings miss and concerns re:AI spending; AAP lower on weaker guidance; BULL, BILL, FUTU all higher, positive for financial services.   MAGS led by META, NVDA, NFLX with remainder  slightly lower. MSFT, AAPL and AMZN had high volume 0DTE calls Wed as money rotated from semis but very short dated and TBD whether it can continue.  Bitcoin/crypto is the latest monkey fave with catalysts: Trump meeting Wed to encourage passing of the Clarity act; Bessent buying bonds to increase liquidity; US$ lower ; short squeeze and funds flowing back into bitcoin. Bitcoin is above 70k and bulls are eyeing 80k but technically overbought. MSTR COIN HOOD CRCL are all beneficiaries of a squeeze in bitcoin and potentially monkeys can shift their guns to bitcoin from memory with the unknown how long the squeeze can continue. SPY Premarket is at the put wall 765 and QQQ at 710 which are lines in the sand to watch. SPX 0DTE indicates support to 7650 with potential acceleration lower. IMO yields are the catalyst to move markets and are driven by oil so watch the two for clues
  
  Stock ETHE IBIT COIN AAPL   WMT TLT MRVL BABA  Speculative  MSTR WOLF   
  Indices  ETHE IBIT USO DRAM ARKF SLV XLRE   KWEB XLP XRT GLD TLT UNG GDX XBI

S&P500 COIN HOOD MRNA WMT MRVL
Other MSTR RARE FUTU ASST BMNR CRCL GLXY   WOLF BILI BABA BE BBIO

IBIT

IBIT is overbought after a 2 day surge. Large option position at 40 which can be used as a line in the sand for continuation higher. IBIT premarket is above my daily expected move estimate so potential to squeeze higher with potential target 45 which is the May high. Bitcoin is moving on short covering and latest attempt by Trump to get the Clarity act passed with the earliest senate vote Sept15 so no short term regulation change which can give the monkeys time to do their thing and hedgies to plan rugpulls.  Spreads and flies lower risk way to trade with the monkeys or hedgies.