Swing Trade Idea – November 19, 2021
Market Setup
•Global markets are weak with USA mixed, Europe red, Japan red, Hong Kong red, China green, Asia red
•Yield curve sharply flatter with a spike down in the 30yr yield
•US dollar sharply higher
Interpretation: Markets are set-up classically defensive with US dollar & Yen higher, long yield down and FAANGM stocks bid.
•News: Covid Fears: Austria imposed full lockdown with 2/3 population vaccinated, Partial lockdowns in other countries
•Stocks: INTU beat and raise; PANW beat and confirmed guidance; BKE beat; WDAY beat and buying VNDLY; AMAT miss and lowered guidance; WSM beat; FL beat but raised supply chain issue; FTCH miss; TLRY Germany to legalize Cannabis
•Indices: USA indices are mixed with Nasdaq green and R2K red and lagging. Global markets are positioned risk-off and FANG stocks are the safety trade and the key for supporting today. SPX Call wall 4700 resistance with support at 4675 and 4650. Indices are short term oversold and odds favor a bounce however one should take care if the support levels are breached.
•Sectors: Leading: China Internet, Software, Cannabis, Tech Lagging: Energy, bitcoin, airlines, financials, small caps, nat gas
•Stocks to watch:
INTU PANW PFE NVDA MSFT AAPL AMAT WDAY Spec Names: AUR RBLX TLRY
Movers
Earnings INTU PANW FTCH WDAY AMAT FL ROST WSM
Indices KWEB IGV TLT MSOS XLK EWZ QQQ XLE /btc JETS XLF IWM UNG XLI
S&P500 INTU MU MRNA NVDA PFE CLX AMAT OXY ROST DVN CCL APA MRO SLB RCL UAL BAC C AAL MAR COF
Movers INTU PANW HIPO JAZZ HZNP PFE WMT PFE FB WDAY AMAT EQT CPE FL VIPS HA: ZEN LMND
WSB TLRY PLUG RBLX NVDA WOOF AMC RIOT SOFI HUT
Idea MSFT
Markets are set-up risk-off into Opex and rising Covid concerns. Usual playbook is to pile into FAANGM to support the index. Yesterday it was AAPL and AMZN and in the premarket MSFT is getting a bid so look for a potential outsized move in MSFT. 342.11 would be a momentum breakout on hourly chart or one could use the Thurs high of 341.56 as a trigger with a stop below the Thurs low.
