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Swing Trade Idea – February 24, 2022

Market Setup

Global equity markets broadly lower, soft and energy commodities sharply higher

Yields: Yields moving lower and curve flattening

•US dollar 1% higher

•News: Ukraine-Russia: News services reporting full-scale invasion of Ukraine

•Stocks: Defence: NOC LMT RTX Gold miners: AG HL GFI GOLD AU Energy: MRO OXY FANG DVN Commodities: CORN WEAT DBC

Earnings: FIVN -13% LMND -23% W -21% NTAP -7% BABA -8% DOCN -8% LNG +6% NEM +2%

•Indices: USA indices sharply lower. SPY 410 premarket which is a major gamma level. Should 410 fail, there is some support at 405 and larger support at 400. Resistance 415 and 420. QQQ 315 is support with 300 below and resistance 330. FAANGMT stocks are under pressure, TSLA in particular which is at 700 with 650 and 600 targets below.  Expect short covering bounce at open but look for pops to be sold.

•Sectors: Leading: commodities, gold and silver miners, energy Lagging bitcoin,  spec tech, emerging markets

•Stocks to watch: LNG PAAS MRO NEM NTAP EBAY Spec Names: CLOV W DOCN

Pre-830ET

Earnings AEM BBWI CHK CTRA EBAY FIVN GBT HLF HTZ IR LMND MGNI NOVA NTAP PAAS PBR RVLV BABA BUD DISCA DOCN KDP LNG MRNA NCLH NEM NTES TECK W

Indices DBC GDX SLV XOP XLE TLT  XLP /btc ARKF ARK SOCL JETS LIT EEM SOXX TAN SMH MSOS XLF

S&P500 MRO NOC OXY FANG DVN LMT RTX NEM CF  EPAM NCLH TSLA NTAP EBAY CCL NVDA ENPH UAL PENN

Movers FANG PAAS CLOV NEM IAG RRC AEP  SKLZ RCII FIVN FUBO SNBR RVLV KOD NVCR PZZA ONEM GRAB PLTR

WSB RTX  NIO AMC PLTR TSLA RBLX AFRM

Trade Idea TLT
Bonds are bouncing on Ukraine news. TLT is at 140, which is a key pivot level.  Sharp move and risk of a pullback but one could consider long over 140 for a safety trade. Bonds are heavily shorted so a short squeeze is possible.