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Swing Trade Idea – April 20, 2022

Market Setup pre-800ET

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Positive  global set-up

•Commodities:  Precious metals, oil and natgas, Grains, industrial metals (aluminum, copper, nickel palladium, zinc)

•Yields: Yields pulled back and curve flattened as BOJ started a 4d program to buy unlimited JGBs to maintain yields.

•News: Europe: German PPI 4.9% vs 2.7% m/m, Industry production .7% vs .8% m/m; Canada: CPI 830ET; USA: Home Sales 1000ET; G20/G7 meetings; OIL: APA 4.5M drop, Inventories today; China: No wait cuts yet, Covid cases dropping but Taiwan cases rising

•Stocks: NFLX 200k drop in subs last quarter, expects 2M sub loss in current quarter, stock -27% Impact: DIS ROKU WBD; ASML Rev -19% bookings +49% Impact: Positive for AMAT LRCX KLAC and semis in general. PG beat; IBM  beat; LULU Investor meeting;

• Indices: USA indices higher but overbought with sharp rise at 4ET. Key support levels: SPY 445 QQQ 345 Indices are still negative gamma but much less after Tues short squeeze. One should be prepared for pullback or continuation of the short squeeze

•Stocks to watch: ASML IBM LULU TLT OXY IWM  NFLX ROKU DIS Spec Names:  PLTR AMD ABNB

Pre-800ET

Earnings IBM NFLX ASML BKR PG MTB ABT

Indices FEZ ICLN /btc TLT SMH EFA XLE XOP yen euro XBI IWM KWEB UUP QQQ

S&P500 ANTM IBM AMAT PG KLAC EXC QCOM TWTR CTRA TER NFLX DIS CMA XRAY BKR FB MOS FCX CF PWR AMZN

Movers ASML ANTM HCSG WFG LZ LULU NOK PG PG EXC TWTR NFLX ROKU SAVA TEVA DIS WBD IQ RIO CS FB

WSB PLTR AMD NVDA CCJ BA SPOT RBLX NIO AMZN

Trade Idea: SMH
Semis are bid premarket based on positive guidance from ASML that reported lower sales but forecast high bookings. SMH premarket high 251.85.  Upside targets if semis continue to be bought are 260 and 270 but caveat is semis have been weak and bounces have been sold