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Swing Trade Idea – August 17, 2022

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields higher

•US$ +.24% EUR -.08% JPY -.7% GBP -.11% CAD -0.46%

•News: USA: Retail Sales 830ET, FOMC Minutes 14ET Europe: GDP Q/Q 0.6% vs 0.7%, Employment Q/Q 0.3% vs 0.4% UK CPI Y/Y 10.1% vs 9.8%

•Stocks: TGT -3% EPS .39 vs .79 Freight and Inventory Issues ; ADI -2% beat – Economic uncertainty impacting bookings;  Low +1% beat SS sales 0.3% 2Q DIY slowing ZIM -4.5% Miss but +50% Y-Y Dividend $4.75Q up from $2.85 DNUT -11% -guidance TJX -1% EPS beat sales miss

•General: Leading: XOP GLD Lagging: ARK biotech semis, Consumer Discr, bitcoin

•Indices: Risk-off setup ahead of retail sales and FOMC minutes. Higher yields and US$ generally negative for risk assets. Indices downtrending since 3ET but remain extended and potential for trend day down depending on reaction to reports today. SPY support 425, 420, 415,  and resistance  427, 430  QQQ below 330 gamma level  with  325, 320 support and 330, 332 resistance. Bitcoin and TSLA are 2 risk sentiment indicators to watch today. Bitcoin < 23600 and TSLA < 900 would be warning signals. Rotation into staples possible

•Stocks to watch  A LOW  TSLA  AMZN  Spec Names BBBY VERU NU SPWR BE RIOT

Pre-800ET

Earnings A ADI LOW TCEHY TGT TJX ZIM

Indices ARKK SOXX ARKF SMH XLY XBI GDX XLK QQQ TLT IWM

S&P500 A LOW TGT ADI NVDA TTWO ENPH PYPL PSX CCL NCLH YUM META AMZN MU DAL ADBE GOOG FCX

IWM BBBY FRO VERU GME OPCH SPWR BE PLUG BPMC DDD LTHM BCRX M SIGA M LC

WSB BBBY GME HOOD BROS PLUG AFRM NVDA UPST NET COIN RIVN AMD

Trade Idea: SARK
SARK is a way to short ARKK in the event that today turns into a trend day. Premarket high is 48.85 can be used for a momentum long. Note retail sales and FOMC are market moving events today