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Swing Trade Idea – August 9, 2022

Market Setup: Pre FOMC

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Weak  global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields higher and steeper

•US$ -.19% EUR +.3% JPY -.17% GBP +.19%

•News: USA:  nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs 830ET Europe: Ukraine pipeline company stopped pumping Russian oil to central Europe

•Stocks: NVDA prewarned sales $6.7B vs $8.1B gaming down 33%;  MU investing $40B to on-shore prod. UPST -11% miss; NLSN +21% consortium with PE; CPRI +3% beat and raise; OXY +2.4% Buffet now owns 20%; TSLA EV sales dropped 64% in July; GFS +5% beat QCOM contract; NVAX -29% lower vaccine demand; NCLH -8% big EPS miss;

•General: Leading: DBC XLE XOP Lagging:  bitcoin semis ARKK XBI ARKF ICLN

•Indices: USA markets pulled back and short term oversold. SPY below 415 gamma level with support 412,  410, 408, and resistance  415,420  QQQ below 320 gamma level  with  318, 315 support and 320, 325 resistance.  Market is leaning slightly risk-off with some pullbacks in the heavily shorted names. Looks like a rotation into value with financials, energy, staples and commodities bid. Tech minor pullback with NVDA warning given the magnitude will weigh on semis.  Alt energy and ARKK stocks taking a breather premarket but short squeeze does not seem to have ended. SPY 410 is the must hold level should markets pullback

Trade Idea: OXY
OXY in play with oil higher and news that Buffet has raised his ownership to 20%.  Premarket high 61.75 can be used for a momentum trade or look for a pullback > 60.5. Upside target 62.5 and 66 support 60.