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  • Swing Trade Idea – November 23, 2022

    Nov 23, 2022 Uncategorized Comments Off on Swing Trade Idea – November 23, 2022

    Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

    Market Setup- Pre 830

    •Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral global set-up

    •Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

    •Yields: Yields are flat

    •US$ -.20% Euro +.25% Yen 0.06% GBP +.5%

    News: USA: FED minutes 2:00 pm ET, Durable goods 8:30 am ET, MFG/Services PMI 8:30 am ET, UofM Sentiment 10:00 am ET, and Crude Inventories 10:30 am ET Europe: MFG PMI 47.3, and Services PMI 48.6  UK: MFG PMI 46.2,  Service PMI 48.8 OIL: Europe/USA are trying to create a price cap for Russian oil – the oil is lower for now.

    Stocks: DE +3% EPS displays a beat; JWN -8% displays a beat; ADSK -9% displayed a miss with earnings up: DE HPQ earnings are down: JWN, PAGS, VMW, ADSK, TSLA, and MS display a target of $300, CS -2%  $1.58B loss warning cutting 5% of staff

    •General: Leading: Bitcoin, China, Spec Tech, and Euro Lagging: Energy and Gold

    •Indices: The USA indices are consolidating prior to the major data display today. The SPY shows $400.2 with a resistance of $400, $405 and a support of $398 and $395. The QQQ shows a $286 with a resistance of $287.5, $290 and support of $285. The US$ is lower and European data is slightly better predicting it is supportive; however the USA reports today will move the US$ and yields. In my opinion the market is setup for a mild risk-on with TSLA and a upgrade lifting on ARKK.  The S&P500 and SPY $400 is at a major resistance and has potential for a sharp squeeze above post FOMC minutes at 2:00 pm ET but the squeeze is higher on a low volume and displays that Tuesday sets up the potential for a pullback to $395. Be prepared!

    •Stocks to watch  DE, TSLA, COIN, BABA, NVDA,  ADSK, JWN, AAPL, COP Spec Names MANU

    Pre-800ET

    Earnings DE, HPQ, JWN, PAGS, VMW, ADSK,

    Indices /btc, KWEB, ARKK, BLOK, euro, QQQ, XLY, XLE, XOP, GLD

    S&P500 DE, HPQ, TSLA, NVDA, ZBH, AMD, ADSK, HAL, FANG, XOM, COP, SLB, APA, DVN, OXY

    IWM MSTR, CPRX, GEO, MRTX, CRK, GME, SM

    WSB COIN, BABA, TSLA, NIO, MSTR, RIVN, AFRM, NVDA, GEO, UPST, GME

    Movers MANU, DE, COIN, BEKE, JD, BILI, TSLA, BABA, HPQ, LI, MSTR, CNHI, ZIM, AFRM, ADSK, PAGS, JWN, VOD, STM, VET, SCCO, STLA, KHC

    My Trade Idea: TSLA
    In my opinion TSLA is in play today with an upgrade by MS to $300. The stock has been under heavy distribution and may lead to a short squeeze or just another selling opportunity. The premarket high of $175 can be used for a momentum long or a pullback > $171.9.  Anything below $171.9 I will consider a fade to $170 and $167.5. I expect a move is +/-9 into the Friday close.

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