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  • Swing Trade Idea – December 23, 2022

    Dec 23, 2022 Uncategorized Comments Off on Swing Trade Idea – December 23, 2022

    Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

    Market Setup – Pre830ET

    •Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Mild Bulllish global set-up

    •Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

    •Yields: Yields are higher

    •Currencies:  US$ -.15%, Euro +.19%, Yen -0.23%, GBP +.32%

    •News:  USA: PCE, Durable Gods, 8:30 ET, UofM Consumer Sentiment 10:00 ET Canada: GDP 8:30 ET

    •Stocks: TSLA  +1.3% Elon says he won’t sell more shares; META +.4% settled a class action suit, AMC secondary

    •General: Leading: Brazil, Gold Miners, China Internet, Energy Lagging:  Bonds

    •Indices: The USA indices are consolidating before the PCE data. The Macro setup displays pro inflation with yields and commodities being higher. The US$ is lower but still supportive. If the PCE is higher than I expect a potential for the US$ to be higher, the yields to be higher and equities to be lower, or converse. The SPY 381.9  displays a resistance of 385 and 390 with a support of 380, 375 and 370. Vix futures 24 implies a 1.5% daily move. Large JPM SPX position is at 3835 which may lead to some stickiness until the Dec. 30th roll.  In my analysis the PCE will be market moving as will Consumer Sentiment  at 10:00 ET. Liquidity is low so large moves are possible, especially late in the day.

    •Stocks to watch  EWZ, GFI, OVV, TSLA, NTNX Spec Names AMC

    Pre-800ET

    Earnings

    Indices EWZ, GDX, KWEB, /btc, QQQ, XOP, IWM, GLD, DIA, TLT

    S&P500 OVV, PBF, SAVA ADTN

    IWM OVV, PBF, SAVA, ADTN

    WSB TSLA

    Movers PHG, HCM, MT, PUK, MP, TSLA, BIDU, PAAS, JKS, TCOM, OVV, GFI, NTNX, MNSO, SAVA, ADTN, TTM, EDU, MDGL

    My Trade Idea: TSLA
    My trade analysis and idea today is that TSLA has been under heavy distribution with Elon selling. He has said he is finished selling. Retail has continued to buy TSLA into it’s decline and in my opinion, has a potential for a bounce / short squeeze; however the trend followers and institutional selling can potentially lead to lower levels. I am taking a straddle approach: Long over 131.5 and fade below 122.5.  Short targets of 115, 100 with Long targets of 135, 140.

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