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  • Swing Trade Idea – January 05, 2023

    Color Key – Positive Neutral Negative

    Market Setup – Pre8:30ET Pre-ADP

    Global MarketsUSA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong AsiaNeutral global set-up

    CommoditiesGold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

    Yields: Yields are flat

    Currencies:  US$ .14%, Euro -0.08%, Yen -0.16%, GBP -.48%

    NewsUSA: ADP jobs, Job Cuts, UE claims 8:30 Services PMI 945ET; Crude Inventories 11ET Europe: PPI -.9% m/m vs -0.8%

    Stocks: AMZN +1.4% Increasing job cuts;  WDC +4.8% merger talks restarted;  COIN -5.8% downgrade SI -38% large asset drop cutting 40% of staff  Earnings CAG HELE STZ WBA

    General: Leading: Brazil, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Lagging:  China Internet, Gold Miners, Materials

    Indices: Global indices display as neutral. Macro is negative with yields higher, the US$ is higher and energy is higher. SPY 382.7 has a resistance of 385 and 390 with support of 380 and 375. Vix futures 22.5 implies a 1.4% daily move. QQQ 265 support of 265 and 260 with a resistance of 267 and 270. The market has shifted to a moderate risk off after ADP and job cuts data but has not broken key levels specifically with SPY 380 and QQQ 265.  The market has breakdown risk; however ADP Friday data is pending and may keep indices in check.

    Stocks to watch: AMZN, AAPL, WDC, MSFT, TSLA, BABA, Spec Names: NEOG, NVCR, HKD, RKLY

    Pre-8:00ET

    Earnings CAG, LW, STZ, WBA

    Indices EWZ, XLE, XOP, LIT, JETS, XME, XLY, KWEB, GDX, XLB, GLD, XLB, ARKF, XLV

    S&P500 WDC, FCX, AMZN, CHTR, HAL, OXY, ORCL, MRO, LIN, WBA, AXP, COF, TPR

    IWM NEOG, FGEN, FRO, STNG, AA, SM

    WSB AMZN, NIO, BABA, WEN, COIN

    Movers NVCR, ZLAB, WEC, CRSP, MT, DOCU, FRO, AMZN, FCX, STNG, TS, HSBC, BHP, SBSW, OVV, FUTU, ORCL, COIN, GPS, HCM, GDS, LIN, ALLY, CRWD, DB, WBA, SHOP, JWN

    My Trade Idea: SPY
    Indices are pulling back post the ADP report which showed more jobs were created.  In my analysis, I think that the SPY will be opening with negative momentum which can lead to a potential bounce or breakdown.  I will consider fades below 380 with a potential bounce between 378-375. A break of 375 could lead to 370. I am not expecting a major break with non-farm payrolls due Friday. Ready

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