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Swing Trade Idea – January 10, 2023

Color Key – Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup – Pre8:30 AM ET

•Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Negative global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are higher

•Currencies:  US$ +.42%, Euro -0.31%, Yen -.61%, GBP -.62%

•News:  USA: FED Powell 9:00 AM ET; NFIB Small Biz Index 89.8 vs 91.6  •Europe: French Ind Prod  2% m/m

•Stocks: TSLA -.7%;  BA -2.5% Downgrade; JEF -1.7%  profit slide; FRO +24% EURN merger off AVGO AAPL planning to use own chips

•General: Leading: Bitcoin, Gold miners, US$ Lagging:  QQQ, Semis, Spec_tech, Tech

•Indices: Global indices negative post Monday was short lived with a short squeeze ahead of Powell’s speech at 9:00 AM ET. The Macro setup is negative with yields higher. The US$ is higher and energy is higher. The SPY 386 has support of 385 and 380 with resistance of 390. Vix futures 22.6 implies a 1.5% daily move. The QQQ 268 has resistance of 270 and support of 265 and 260.  In my opinion, the indices are still above value in the short term and are not yet oversold. Institutions were sellers at the highs on Monday after the morning squeeze. Before Powell’s speech, the market are risk-off  – I will be watching the US$ and yields following the speech as yields and US$ display higher. I believe this will be negative for equities and Nasdaq in particular.

•Stocks to watch BABA, T, GFI, TSLA, NVDA, BA  Spec Names: OSH, FRO

Pre-800 AM ET

Earnings ACI, JEF

Indices /btc, GDX, UUP, GLD, QQQ, SOXX, ARKK, XLK, XLY, SMH, faangmt, DIA, XLU, IWM, TLT, XLB

S&P500 AMT, OKE, A, ILMN, ON, NCLH, AOS, BA, PCG, SBNY, HPE, RL, PCAR, NFLX, ADBE, AAL, RF, CHRW, AVGO, SWK

IWM FRO, BE, PUMP, CPRX, T, BOX, CRK, SMCI, DK

WSB BABA, BA, NET, COIN

Movers OSH, FRO, CVAC, BMBL, BE, CTKB, CFLT, FMS, PUMP, TTM, AU, BABA, GFI, LI, BILI, EURN, ILMN, HTHT, ON, CRWD, AOS, ZS, NET, RBLX, TSLA

My Trade Idea: XLK
XLK institutional selling were at highs Monday.  There is a potential fade < 125 and my target will be 123.  The premarket high of 126 I believe can be used for a long, should the market reverse but I will look for selling if XLK approaches 128.