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Swing Trade Idea – January 17, 2023

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Market Setup Pre-8:30 AM ET

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia –  Neutral global set-up

•Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Grains, Industrial Metals

•Yields: Yields are higher

•Currencies:  US$ +.06%, Euro 0.02%, Yen -0.6%, GBP +.22%

•News:  USA: Empire State 8:30 ET; Williams 15:00 ET; China: GDP 2.9% q/Y below target; Japan: BOJ report, Yen is moving higher anticipating further raising of YCC limits

•Stocks: TSLA  2.6% Chinese EV registration boost post price cuts; GS -1.6% Revenue and earnings miss MS +1% beat SBNY +3% SI +4.5% negative revenue; PFE -1.8% downgrade ABB +2% upgrade from sell to buy

•General: Leading: Bitcoin, US$ Lagging: Brazil, Gold miners, China Internet, Bonds, airlines, semiconductors

Indices: USA indices are consolidating at slightly lower levels. Macro setup are negative with yields and US$ higher. SPY 398 has support of 397 and 395 with a resistance of 400. Indices remain stretched above expected moves for week driven by short squeezes and 0DTE option trading. VIX futures rising premarket and at 20 look for a daily move of 1.25%.  Markets are overbought but the potential for a further short squeeze with TSLA, bitcoin strong premarket. Currency volatility potential with BOJ meeting tonight

Stocks to watch: TSLA, MS, AR, GS, MSFT, FCX, DAL  Spec Names  FLEX, COIN, NATI, DCFC, GFI

Pre-800ET

Earnings CFG, GS, MS, SBNY

Indices /BTC, PRNT, UUP, EWZ, GDX, KWEB, TLT, EEM, JETS, SOXX, GLD, SMH, QQQ

S&P500 TSLA, CCL, EQT, CTRA, DIS, FCX, PFE, ATVI, BAC, GOOGL META, DAL, INTC

IWM MSTR, CRK, AR, WERN, CAKE, BLMN, GME

WSB COIN, TSLA, RIVN, BABA, CLF, NIO, GME

Movers NATI, COIN, HKD, W, EDU, EQT, CCL, TSLA, SBSW, EQNR, AU NIO, JD, PHG, GFI, BILI, BIDU, RIO, FUTU, ING, ROKU, FCX

My Trade Idea: GS
In my analysis, GS is in play today after earnings print 40% below expectations and revenue 16% lower y-y. $972M reserved for losses on credit cards. Premarket low 364.1 and Fri low 362.26 in my analysis, can be used for a fade trigger. Friday’s financials bounced hard with the market on short cover so watch for a repeat. MS beat and moving higher. JPM and BAC are pulling back in sympathy with GS had large bounces Friday.