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  • Swing Trade Idea – May 15, 2023

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ‘div’ – dividend 

    ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia  Positive  equity global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil and natgas, Softs, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: Yields are higher

    ·         Currencies:  US $ -.18%

    ·         News: USA: Empire Mfg at 8:30 ET; FOMC Kashkari at 9:15 ET, Barkin 1230, Bostic at 14:00 ET  Europe: Industrial production -4.1% m/m; China: Central bank will maintain liquidity

    ·         Stocks OKE buying MMP; ALB Chinese lithium prices+; WDC merger talks; NEM closes Newcrest deal; SRPT +25% FDA recommend drug approval; INTU, HRB Govt proposal for free tax software; 

    ·         General: Leading: bitcoin, China Internet, Clean Energy, Lithium, ERM  Lagging: volatility, bonds, US$

    ·         Overview: USA SPY 413.0 displays supportof 412.35, 410, and 405 with resistance 415, and 417.3. SPY expected move +/- 2.2. QQQ 325.7 with resistance 330, 328 displays support of 325, 320, 316, and 315. QQQ expected move +/- 1.9. Macro setup is mixed with US$ lower and yields higher.  Global equities are broadly higher which is risk-on with media narrative that debt ceiling talks were positive. Caveat is that S&P500 is opening at the level where institutions have been selling in size. Premarket set-up is for a rotation into laggards such as commodities, bitcoin and China, all of which benefit from lower US$. Caution that the week is risky with Opex Friday and Vix expiration Wed.

    ·         Stocks to watch  FMNDY, WDC, AI, ALB, BABA, SCHW, RIVN, TSLA   Spec Names SRPT, RIOT, COIN

     

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings MNDY, TSEM 

    Indices /btc, KWEB, ICLN, LIT, EEM, TAN, IWM, USO, XLB, XBI, EFA, XLF, VXX, TLT, UUP

    S&P500 WDC, CTLT, DD, ALB, TPR, SCHW, BWA, FCX, META, ATVI, ENPH, OKE, INTU

    IWM RIOT, AHCO, MSTR, ASAN, SHAK, NNOX, AI, FRO, SILK

    WSB AI, RIOT, COIN, BABA, CLF, RIVN

    Movers SRPT, MNDY, MMP, RIOT, ASAN, WDC, PDD, CTLT, BIDU, ALB, COIN, BILI, TSEM, NNOX, AI, TSEM, SCHW, BABA, JD, FRO, META, HRB, OKE, INTU, SBLF, LI, RIVN

     

    Trade Idea: AI

    In my opinion, AI is in play on preliminary guidance above expectations. In my analysis, premarket high 20.79 can be used for a momentum long or pullback >= 20. Call positioning can lead to a move to 22.5 or 23 with stretch target of 25

     

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