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  • Swing Trade Idea – November 3, 2023

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia – Neutral, equity global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: Yields lower Currencies:  USA -.18%

    ·         NewsUSA: Non-farm payrolls 830ET; ISM services PMI 10ET; EUR: UE rate 6.5% vs 6.4%; China: Caixin Services PMI 50.4 vs 51; CDN: UE rate 830ET

    ·         Stocks:  SQ +15%, MGA +3%, DOCN +22%, FLR +4% , AAPL -2.3%, TEAM -9%, FTNT-20%, NET -4%, SWKS -3.9%, MCHP -2.3%, BILL-29%,  Earnings reactions
    Overview: USA SPY 430.4 support 430 425 and resistance 435 . SPY expected move +/- 3.8   QQQ 362.5 with resistance 365 and support  360 355. QQQ expected move +/- 3.6.  USA indices flat ahead of the non-farm payroll print. Indices are very extended after a 2d rally following a drop in yields and US$ and a healthy dose of short covering. AAPL forecast (basically no growth) is only slightly weighing on stock and hence market but worth watching in case fundamentals matter. The small cap/short squeeze names are up premarket so looks like they will try again. Caveat is out of the money call euphoria can lead to late in the day pullback should stocks/indices stall. Indices should now be in positive gamma which will slow down the advance.  Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (434.5-427), QQQ (367-360), IWM (171.9-167.9), SPX(4350-4385). 

    Stocks to watch:
     SQ, FLR, EXPE, DKNG, MNST, AAPL, FTNT, NET,     Spec Names: DOCN 

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings:   SQ, DOCN, MGA, FLR,  AAPL, TEAM, FTNT, NET, SWKS

    Indices: KWEB, USO, ARKK, KRE, EEM, IWM, TLT, ICLN, XLU,  /btc, IGV, XLK, EWZ, faangmt, QQQ 

    S&P500: EXPE, PODD, LYV, PARA, MNST, CAH, WBD, MU, BKNG, FTNT, PANW, AAPL, SWKS, INTU, SYK, HD

    IWM: DOCN, FLR, FRO, RIOT 

    WSB: FIGS, NIO, UBER, BABA, NVDA, COIN, NET, RIOT, MSTR 

    Movers: DOCN, SQ, EXPE, PARA, IEP, FLR, LYV, DKNG, CRSP, BILI, BILL, FTNT, AGL, FND, TEAM, COIN, NET, RIOT, AAPL, PANW



    Trade Idea: AAPL

    AAPL in play post earnings with stock down on a forecast for no growth. Moved down to expected move but bouncing with the rest of the market post jobs report.  Straddle approach: > 175 potential long

    Should bounce fail, targets 172.5 and 170. Premarket looks like a risk-on short squeeze but may not last so take care.

     

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