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  • Swing Trade Idea – February 09, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong Asia Neutral equity global set-up

    ·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond +.13% Currencies:  USA  +.03% 

    ·         News: USA:CPI seasonal revision 830ET  CAD: Employment change
    Stocks:
     PEP -1.9%, PINS -8.9%, AFRM -9%, MGA -1%, TTWO -7.4, EXPE -15%,  NET +29%, EMBC +9.8%, eps
    Overview: USA SPY 499.4  support 497 495   and resistance 500 505.  SPY expected move +/- 2.4 QQQ 434.1 with resistance  435 436  and support  432 430; expected move +/-3.1. USA indices are slightly positive ahead of market moving CPI revision with small caps and profitless tech leading (IPO, ARKK). Macro factors are neutral with yields and US$ flattish but will move with the CPI revision. Large cap indices are close to the daily and weekly expected move hence potential for limited upside or a major breach higher. Should the premarket positioning continue into the day, bitcoin, cloud, semis and security stocks are favorable long sectors. Alternate thesis is a higher CPI revision which will lead to yields higher which may result in small caps underperforming.  SPY 495 remains the key level.   Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (500.8-495.9),  QQQ (435.9-429.7), IWM (198.2-194.2), SPX(5022.3-4973.5). 

    Stocks to watch:
    NVDA, NFLX, CRWD, EXPE, AFRM,  Spec Names: MARA, CLSK, PLTR, SNOW

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings:   AFRM, BILL, BYD, CLSK, EXPE, ILMN, NET, PCTYPI, PAA, MGA, EMBC
    Indices:
    /btc, HACK, BLOK, ARKF, SOXX, SMH, IGV, FDN, IPO, XLK, QQQ, VXX, USO, GLD, TLT 

    S&P500: UAL, AMAT, NFLX, QCOM,  EXPE, TTWO, ABNB, PEP,
    Movers: NET, CLSK, MARA, RIOT, COIN, ENVX, FSLY, SNOW, S, RIVN, DDOG, PATH, SHOP, CVNA, EXPE, PINS, TTWO, AFRM, ABNB, BILL, CPRI,





    Trade Idea: ARKK

    ARKK is an idea should there is a resumption in the move in profitless tech stocks. ARKK is at the top of the daily expected move in the premarket which can lead to an outsized move. Potential long over 49.5 or on pullback > 49. Should CPI revision be higher ARKK is a potential fade  48.9

     

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