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  • Swing Trade Idea – May 9, 2024

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend 

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government 

     

    Color Key: Positive Neutral Negative

     

    Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Asia Neutral global set-up

    ·         Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals 

    ·         Yields: 30Y Bond -.4% Currencies:  USA$ +.12% Vix: +.26%

    ·         News: USA: US UE claims 231k vs 212k; 30y bond auction 13:00 ET UK: BOE rate unchanged, leaning to cuts China: Trade improving – sentiment increasingly positive
    Stocks:
    APP+13.5%, CAKE+4.5%, HOOD+5.3%, HUBS+8%, RUN+4%, ZLAB+17%, YETI+12%, WRBY+12%,  ABNB-8.8%, ARM-7.8%, SEDG-6%,  RBLX-25%, EPS 

    ·         Overview: USA SPY 517.4 with support at 515, and resistance at 520; SPY expected move +/- 2.2. QQQ at 440.5 with resistance at 442 and 443 as well as support at 437 and 435; QQQ Expected move +/-2.8. Macro set-up is mixed but improving premarket with long yields higher but US$ now down largely due to the UE claims higher than expected (bad=good). The 30y bond auction at 13:00 ET will be important today. SPX has been muted the last few days with a large 5200 option SPX position acting as resistance and 5150 as support. Break of either of these levels will lead to a significant move. Positive China trade data is lifting. China stocks and providing a lift to metals and potentially energy as China growth=inflation. MAG7 are somewhat muted but positive COST sales results may spillover to AMZN. NFLX has been running and looks like it may continue to open. Many earnings names reported, look for continuation or reversals. Volume has been well below average which IMO means that institutions are on the sidelines ahead of new data in the form of inflation data next week. In the meantime 0DTE rule the roost. Today’s daily expected move levels: SPY (519.4-515)  QQQ (443-437), IWM (205-202) SPX(5210-5165). 

    Stocks to watch KWEB, UBER, HUBS, ARM, ABNB      

    Spec Names ZLAB, YETI, RBLX, RIOT 

    Pre-800ET
    Earnings ANET, MCK, OXY, SU, CPNG, EA, TWLO, WYNN, RIVN, CFLT, MTCH, _TM, UBER, BUD, SHOP, EMR, AFRM
    Indices
    KWEB, SLV, FXI, GDX, BITI, VIX, GLD, XLRE, IWM, DBC, EWC,  BITO, ARKG, TLT
    S&P500  QCOM, UBER, SMCI, PARA, NEM, ABNB, CRM, PFE, PANW, IBM
    Movers ZLAB, WRBY, APP, YETI, BMBL, VITL, KVYO, HUBS, HOOD, VSTS, RUN, SN, CAKE, FUTU, BILI, BEKE, AFRM,  RBLX, DUOL, ALGM, EXAS, SEDG, ARM, BBVA, DV, U, PZZA, SONY, PLNT, RIOT 

     

    Trade Idea: ARM

    ARM holdings are lower post earnings after providing weaker guidance. Semis have continued to be bought in spite of weak guidance and ARM is a popular retail stock. Long idea > 100 with target 102-106. May be able to trade a bounce that fails 100 with a target of 97. 

     

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