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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Positive set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -0.4%  Currencies:  USA$ -.03%, CAD +0.17%, YEN-0.37%,  BTC/USD+2.1%,  Vix:19.1

·         Stocks: MNDY-18%  B+5%   EPS
Events:USA:Senate voted 60-40 to reopen the govt but will need a final vote 11ET. House will then need to vote, expected Wed. The agreement is short term to Jan. Trump tweet out a proposal for 50y mortgages and paying $2k per person using tariff revenues but Bessent is already trying to walk it back.

·          Equity: Global indices have bounced with USA indices above the daily expected move. Mechanical bounce due to puts bought ahead of the weekend. The senate vote at 11ET is the big event and market will react. Semis and AI are the faves of the monkeys premarket along with spec tech and high short interest. Jenson tweeted that he has asked TSM to increase production by 50% due to Blackwell demand and TSM reported monthly sales +17% y/y which indicates slowing however monkeys are buyers.  MU AMD AVGO are all very strong but take care with chasing monkeys as overbought premarket. MAG7 led by NVDA and TSLA per usual with TSLA reporting lowest China sales in 3yrs but flows rule. The govt reopening did not include an extension of ACA subsidies but will be voted on later. Impact of ACA subsidies is negative for some healthcare insurers with OSCR and UNH lower premarket. Precious metals were higher premarket and bonds lower as potentially Trumps tweets are deemed inflationary. Barrick higher post earnings is lifting gold miners. SPX is in negative gamma which means large moves are possible in either direction. Premarket there are short calls at 6815 which are a potential upside target but no evidence of put sellers below, which means scanty 0DTE support at the moment. Should SPX close > 6800 it will improve the odds of the recovery continuing. Until then, the bounce in markets may be just a mechanical bounce with caution that market is pricing in govt reopening this week with polymarket odds 93%. A failure to reopen would result in a violent reaction.
 
SPY 677.5,  Resistance 680 683  Support 675 670,  QQQ 619  Resistance 619 620 623  Support 617 615
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6779-6679), SPY(676-671), QQQ(619-600), IWM(245-238)

Stocks to watch NVDA, AMD, MU, B, UNH, OSCR, TLT, Speculative  ARKK, IBIT, CSIQ
Indices ETHE, GDX, SLV, ARKK, IBIT, SMH, GLD, ARKF, ARKG, MSOS, UNG, TLT, XLP

S&P500 AMD, AMZN, AVGO, COIN, GOOGL, HOOD, INTC, META, MU, NCLH, NVDA, ORCL, PLTR, SMCI, TSLA, UNH

Other COGT, PGY, BMNR, AG, CSIQ, TEM, CRML, CDE, IREN, SOUN, QUBT, CELH, MNDY, MTSR, OSCR, UNH

NVDA

NVDA bouncing on short covering or Jensen request for TSM to  increase production by 50%. 195 is a large option position  and can be used as a pivot. NVDA is +8% from the lows Friday so pullback risk below 192.5 with lower support at 190. NVDA will sometimes run into the earnings report Nov 19 but dependent on whether the monkeys will buy the dip in AI and semis or whether the pops are used as exit liquidity.