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  • Swing Trade Ideas – November 13, 2025

    Nov 13, 2025 Uncategorized Comments Off on Swing Trade Ideas – November 13, 2025

    Date: Nov 13, 2025

    Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

    ** ‘div’ – dividend

    ** ‘m/m’ – month over month

    ** ‘y/y’ – year over year

    ** ‘Inven’ – inventories

    ** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing

    ** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

    ** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

    ** ‘d’ – day

    ** ‘Y’ – year

    **govt – government

    Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

    Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Neutral set-up

    • Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
    • Yields: 30Y Bond -0.21%  Currencies:  USA$ -0.22% CAD -0.00% YEN-0.02%  BTC/USD+1.6%  Vix:18.4
    • Stocks: DIS-4%  CSCO+7% CSIQ+11% JD+1.8% BILI+2.8%   EPS
      Events:USA: 30Y bond auction
      Equity: USA indices are mildly lower premarket. QQQ and IWM are weaker reflecting the rotation underway into lower beta, large cap names.  MAGS are led by MSFT which has been bouncing off lows with NVDA leading to the downside and other AI related semis like AMD AVGO and other AI related names like ORCL PLTR pulling back. Positive earnings reactions by CSIQ CSCO JD BILI and negative by DIS, can watch for RTH action. BABA higher with announcement of an improved AI app to compete with chatgpt. SNDK, WDC, STX lower post Kioxia earnings which raise margin concerns. Been a hot segment and would pay attention to MU, which has been on a tear with meme that memory demand going to the moon.  Precious metals still en fuego. Options market is call dominated with IV rising which occurs towards the end of a move but can continue but best to consider spreads rather than buying calls.  Natural gas continues to climb and seems extended to me but the gas heavy producers are running. US$ may be turning lower which is positive for commodities and feeding the meme that US debt and potentially mailing cheques to people and Fed buying treasuries is negative for the US$.  Option positioning in MAGS  is bullish with calls bid up in spite of the stocks moving sideways. NVDA earnings is the next big event for the USA stock market so in meantime they are leaning long with SPX 6800 the bull/bear line. SPY is at the top of the weekly expected move so some caution may be warranted

      SPY 682  Resistance 684 685 688  Support 682 680  QQQ 620  Resistance 625 627  Support 620 617 615
      Daily Expected Move. SPX(6894-6807)  SPY(687.7-679) QQQ(627-615)  IWM(245.8-241.5)

      Stocks to watch AMD ETHE SLV NVDA GLD    TLT    Speculative  ONON OKLO  CRCL
      Indices ETHE GDX IBIT SLV KWEB /CL XME XLE XLB   MSOS UNG IWM ARKG SMH ARKX TLT US$

    S&P500  CSCO DIS AMD PLTR 

    Other CSIQ CSCO BABA BILI AG JD   BTDR DIS RGTI SNDK NVO QUBT IREN JOBY AMD CLSK

     

    AMAT

    AMAT reports earnings after the close. AMAT is an important semi equipment company and will move other companies like ASML, KLAC and potentially SMH. Expected move +/-12 . Earnings are expected to decline y-y despite the semi euphoria. AMAT has moved lower > expected move the prior 4 reports with a 3x move on the last report. Butterfly trades are an idea for the report which can be structured to eliminate risk of a larger than expected move.    

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