.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Neutral set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.21% Currencies: USA$ -0.22%, CAD -0.00%, YEN-0.02%, BTC/USD+1.6% Vix:18.4

·       Stocks: DIS-4%, CSCO+7%, CSIQ+11%, JD+1.8%, BILI+2.8% EPS
Events:USA: 30Y bond auction
 Equity: USA indices are mildly lower premarket. QQQ and IWM are weaker, reflecting the rotation underway into lower-beta, large-cap names.  MAGS are led by MSFT, which has been bouncing off lows with NVDA leading to the downside and other AI related semis like AMD, AVGO and other AI related names like ORCL, PLTR pulling back. Positive earnings reactions by CSIQ, CSCO, JD, BILI and negative by DIS, can watch for RTH action. BABA higher with announcement of an improved AI app to compete with chatgpt. SNDK, WDC, STX lower post Kioxia earnings which raise margin concerns. Been a hot segment and would pay attention to MU, which has been on a tear with meme that memory demand going to the moon.  Precious metals still en fuego. Options market is call dominated with IV rising which occurs towards the end of a move but can continue but best to consider spreads rather than buying calls.  Natural gas continues to climb and seems extended to me but the gas heavy producers are running. US$ may be turning lower which is positive for commodities and feeding the meme that US debt and potentially mailing cheques to people and Fed buying treasuries is negative for the US$.  Option positioning in MAGS  is bullish with calls bid up in spite of the stocks moving sideways. NVDA earnings is the next big event for the USA stock market, so in meantime they are leaning long with SPX 6800 the bull/bear line. SPY is at the top of the weekly expected move so some caution may be warranted

SPY 682 Resistance 684 685 688 Support 682 680, QQQ 620 Resistance 625 627 Support 620 617 615
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6894-6807), SPY(687.7-679), QQQ(627-615),  IWM(245.8-241.5)

Stocks to watch AMD, ETHE, SLV, NVDA, GLD, TLT Speculative ONON, OKLO, CRCL
Indices ETHE, GDX, IBIT, SLV, KWEB, /CL, XME, XLE, XLB, MSOS, UNG, IWM, ARKG, SMH, ARKX, TLT, US$

S&P500 CSCO, DIS, AMD, PLTR 

Other CSIQ, CSCO, BABA, BILI, AG, JD, BTDR, DIS, RGTI, SNDK, NVO, QUBT, IREN, JOBY, AMD, CLSK Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – Negative set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.27% Currencies: USA$ -0.06%, CAD +.06%, YEN+0.27%, BTC/USD-0.28% Vix:21.5

·       Stocks: AMAT-6.9%, NU+2.3% EPS
Events:China: Industrial production 4.9%y/y vs 5.5%; Investment -1.7% y/y vs -0.9%
 Equity: USA indices lower premarket following the outsized drop Thurs. Nasi is leading to the downside with MAGS continuing to be liquidated. 2025 leaders were speculative tech stocks with high short interest and high valuation and stocks with single stock leveraged ETFS. Currently, this trade is unwinding rapidly. NVDA earnings NOV 19 is the next big event to add clarity to the AI trade. Market appears to be concerned with the AI capex and punishing companies that are selling debt to support capex e.g. ORCL, META. Credit default spreads for ORCL, CRWV are rising as bond market is pricing in rising default risk with concerns that ROI from AI spending will not cover the debt. APLD lower on debt issuance is another example. Bitcoin and related names lower and rumours that MSTR is selling bitcoin. Bitcoin traders are often leveraged and also long spec tech which can lead to margin calls and forced selling. Bitcoin is approaching a key level around 95k. Gold and silver lower, pulling back from overbought.  Industrial metals lower as China industrial data weak. The sector standing out is energy with oil higher potentially due to geopolitical risk. Nat gas is extended and pulling back with weakness in AI narrative.  QQQ is at the put wall and at the bottom of the daily expected move and SPY at the devil number 666 also at the bottom of the daily expected move in theory are at logical support levels but there is potential that margin calls as well as quant selling (CTA, Vol control funds) can push the indices lower. Many watch the 50sma as the short-term trend signal and Vix as the risk signal. While below 50sma and Vix > 20, it’s a risk-off market but recall that violent up moves can occur, so bulls and bears need to be on their toes!

SPY 666 Resistance 670 675 Support 660, QQQ 600 Resistance 605 610 615  Support 598.8
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6790-6685), SPY(677-666), QQQ(615-601),  IWM(240-234)

Stocks to watch TLT, XLE, TSLA, AMD, GOOGL, AMAT Speculative NU, ARKK
Indices /CL, TLT, XLE, XLP, ARKK, ARKQ, ARKG, IBIT, SMH, GDX, SMH, ARKF, QTUM, ARKX, MAGS, XME 

S&P500 HOOD, COIN, PLTR, BMY, TSLA, INTC, AMD, WMT, NVDA, SMCI, GOOGL, AVGO, ORCL, META 

Other CDTX, AVDL, NU, CRCL, APLD, HUT, CIFR, QBTS, IREN, OKLO, UUUU, NBIS, SMR, BE, CLSK, QS

QQQ

QQQ has fallen to the 600 put wall and highest volume level since Sept 1. Weekly expected move low is 595 so statistically more likely to stay within. Potential today for a flush in the morning  which can lead to a bounce as puts expiring today are closed. No guarantee as margin calls can lead to forced selling but one can use 600 as a reference level. There is another 0DTE level at 598.7 which if breached can lead to 595. Bulls and bears take care today!