Swing Trade Ideas – November 20, 2025
Date: Nov 20, 2025
Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:
** ‘div’ – dividend
** ‘m/m’ – month over month
** ‘y/y’ – year over year
** ‘Inven’ – inventories
** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing
** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative
** Underlined text – higher volume premarket
** ‘d’ – day
** ‘Y’ – year
**govt – government
Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative
Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive set-up
- Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
- Yields: 30Y Bond -0.11% Currencies: USA$ +0.1% CAD -0.08% YEN-0.45% BTC/USD +2.4% Vix:20.4
- Events: USA: Stale employment data 830ET
- Stocks: WMT-0.06% PANW-2.97% BBWI-14.5% NVDA+4.9% EPS
Equity: USA indices are higher post NVDA earnings. Mechanical reaction as predictable as IV was elevated into NVDA earnings and fell with NVDA posting better than expected earnings and Jensen bullish. NVDA is trading below the expected move and 200 call wall with potential for continuation higher. In today’s trading watch the 195 level as a key level for the AI dream to remain alive. MAGS are all higher but inline with the index move. AI names are all bouncing as expected with beleaguered data center names like CRWV IREN NBIS outperforming. Semis bouncing with AVGO and AMD strong bounces indicating short covering. There is some shade being thrown at NVDA report with suggestions of avoiding export restrictions and channel stuffing but everything good premarket. WMT was lower but bouncing premarket with online shopping growing which can be a positive for SHOP. ** Stale employment data. NFP 119k vs 53k, ER rate 4.4% vs 4.3% Reaction – 10y yield fell so market is reacting to the increase in UE rate. Data is old but market is hearing what it wants and support the narrative of Fed cutting, and therefore buy stocks:) *** SPY, QQQ are at the top of the daily expected move and therefore can either accelerate above or retrace with NVDA and the AI bros the key as is a further retrace in VIX, which is still elevated. A further fall in vol will mechanically lift stocks.
SPY 671 Resistance 671 677 Support 670 665 QQQ 610.6 Resistance 610 615 Support 607.5 605 600
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6713-6571) SPY(670-655) QQQ(611-589) IWM(238-229)
Stocks to watch NVDA PLTR AVGO PANW WMT BBWI Speculative CRWV EXAS
Indices ETHE SMH IBIT ARKK MAGS XLK QQQ ARKF NUKZ ARKQ UNG TLT
S&P500 NVDA AMD SHOP ARM PLTR REGN AVGO MRVL MSTR CEG PANW DDOG AMGN CCEP BIIB ASML PEP
Other EXAS CIFR APLD CRWV IREN SMR WULF NBIS SGML SOUN EOSE BBWI
SHOP
NVDA reports earnings after the close. Expected move is +/- 13.5 with IV this week 2.5x average. Upside calls at 200 are potential resistance and puts diminish under 170. Traders are only slightly bullish. Flys are a cheap way to trade NVDA which will move indices and AI related names. It is expected that NVDA will beat and Jensen is usually optimistic so the key will be whether the market buys what Jensen is selling.SHOP along with most Nasi stocks are bouncing as IV falls post NVDA earnings. SHOP is a potential long > 150 with target 160. WMT online shopping results better than expected along is positive for SHOP. SHOP is still below the AVWAP from prior high and may serve as a target. Volume resistance at 158.87. Caveat that extended premarket and pullback to VWAP could be a safer entry.
