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Swing Trade Ideas – November 21, 2025

Date: Nov 21, 2025

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral  set-up

• Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin
• Yields: 30Y Bond +0.37%  Currencies:  USA$ +0.06% CAD -0.01% YEN+0.43%  BTC/USD -3.3%  Vix:22
• Events: USA: MFG PMI 945ET, Consumer confidence 10ET  CDN: Retail sales 830ET UK: Flash PMI weaker but > 50
• Stocks: CPRT-3.5% J-2.4%  ROST+3% INTU+3.5%  EPS
  Equity: USA indices are bouncing premarket following reaching lower lows overnight. USA indices closed Thurs below weekly expected move and at put wall QQQ 585 SPY 650 which are todays line in the sand. Opex is today and closing/expiration of short term puts may lead to a mechanical bounce if traders are reluctant to hold puts over the weekend. Liquidity remains a concern and continuing to weigh on bitcoin which is approaching 80k round number and Aug77k low. IWM is leading USA index and seeing signs of short covering in some of the high short interest tech which may be due to puts expiring. MAGS are led by GOOGL which is the clear preferred MAGS name followed by TSLA which usually is a proxy for short covering. NVDA is bouncing and can use 180 as a reference level.  SPX6550 is a reference level for bull/bear. It looks like a positive open driven by shorts closing in anticipation of puts being taken off which is different from real buying so need to be wary that the wack a mole game might continue with PMI and consumer sentiment potential catalysts at 10ET. Indices are oversold and bears may want to take profit before the weekend which backs the bounce thesis. Also potential for WH/Treasury/Fed to tweet something to support markets. SPX positioning is negative gamma which leads to wider swings in either direction. Quants are sellers if price continues to fall or volatility continues to increase so dangerous setup but also potentially rewarding. SPX 6500 a level where further selling from trend followers so level to watch.
  
  SPY 654.7  Resistance 655 658.7 660 662  Support 650  QQQ 587  Resistance 590  595 560  Support 585 580
  Daily Expected Move. SPX(6633-6444)  SPY(662-643) QQQ(597-574)  IWM(233-225)
  
  Stocks to watch   GOOGL TSLA NVDA  MSTR ORCL TSM    Speculative CRWV NVRI RIOT
  Indices MSOS IWM EFA XLF XRT XBI XLE SPY XLY KRE  ETHE IBIT SLV /CL KWEB

S&P500  HI INTU ROST PPL CTSH BAX WBD TRV GOOGL  ALB CPRT J TMUS FISV ORCL NTAP
Other NVRI IONQ NBIS CRWV GOOGL SNDK SMR TSLA BAC BMNR  RIOT MSTR MARA QS TSM ORCL

GOOGL

GOOGL is technically the strongest MAGS name and is emerging as leading in AI performance with latest Gemini. Anti-trust concerns are diminishing  and GOOGL’s investments in self driving, quantum, AI (Anthropic, self) are all bearing fruit. GOOGL. Option market has large call positions at 300, 305 which is an upside target and buyers are present at 285. Long idea on dips to 285, 290 and momentum long > 295. Caveat that bounces continue to be sold in the index which will lead to GOOGL pulling back due to weighting.