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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – negative set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Industrial Metals, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.51% Currencies: USA$ -0.28%, CAD +0.04%, YEN+0.76%, BTC/USD +-5.3%,  Vix:18.75

·       Events: USA: PMI 10ET

·        Earnings Stocks: none
Equity: USA indices lower premarket to the lower daily expected move. This follows last week outsized move higher as puts and shorts closed and vol sellers were active. Today’s macro driver is a bounce in the Yen and Japanese yields after comments from BOJ. Historically, a rise in Japanese yields and Yen and Nikkei weakness is negative for bitcoin and speculative tech. Bitcoin weakness is weighing on the related names like the miners (CIFR, MARA) and treasury companies (MSTR, BMNR), and is generally correlated with spec tech (ARKK). Geopolitical risk increases with USA threatening an attack on Venezuela and continuing to attack small boats. Combined with OPEC statement that will pause output hikes in 2026, crude is higher. Precious metals continue to be squeezed higher with US$ lower and geopolitical risk. MAGS/AI are weak premarket with NVDA leading to downside after a downgrade to 140, but GOOGL is also lower. AI names MU, PLTR, and ORCL are lower after last week’s short squeeze. BA is higher after Airbus A320 recall. SNPS+7.6% after NVDA announced $2B partnership, watch for potential wilt in RTH. WYNN and LVS higher premarket after GS added WYNN to conviction list. MRNA lower on FDA memo discussing pediatric deaths, may weigh on other vaccine companies.

SPY 678.5 Resistance 680, 682.4  Support 677 675, QQQ 613.3  Resistance 616 618.5 Support 613.3 610
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6896-6802), SPY(688-679), QQQ(624-615),  IWM(251-246)

Stocks to watch SNPS, CSIQ, WYNN, NVDA, GOOGL Speculative CIFR 
Indices SLV, /CCL, GDX, GLD, UNG, KWEB, ETHE, IBIT, ARKK, ARKG, SMH, MAGS, IWM, ARKQ, XLK, XBI, QQQ

S&P500 SNPS, WYNN, DASH, NEM, LVS, MO, BA, HAL, FCX, GL, RMD, MRNA, HOOD, LYB, SHOP, EXC, SMCI, GEV
Other CSIQ, CIFR, CLSK, BMNR, IREN, MARA, MSTR, CRCL, SOFI

NVDA

NVDA is pulling back with concerns that GOOGL TPU will take market share from NVDA for inference.  NVDA has large option positions at 175 and 170 with premarket 174.9. Can consider 175 as a pivot level today with long above with a target of 180 and below target 170. NVDA was downgraded today with a target of 140, but retail like their NVDA, so can go either direction. Daily expected move +/-6.4.