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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight negative  set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.14%, Currencies: USA$ +0.17%, CAD -0.08%, YEN -0.49%, BTC/USD+0.69%, Vix:16.05

·       Events: USA: CPI 830ET; new home sales 10ET; 30Y auction 13ET; Trump 14ET
Stock News: JPM+0.35%, DAL-3.94%, BK-0.75% earnings; LHX partnership with Dept of War with $1B investment in missile business, which will then be IPO’d. Lifting defense stocks

·        Equity: USA slightly lower ahead of CPI data. Two large earnings names: JPM flat and DAL lower on a weaker forecast. Aerospace/defense stocks continue to outperform with Trump wanting a 50% increase in the defense budget and increasing geopolitical excursions. Today LHX is leading with plan for US govt to invest $1B in the missile business and then IPO. UFO, ARKX are ETFs holding space names and ITA, JEDI, DFEN holding defense. Drones are also hot but volatile with RCAT strong today along with ONDS. Rare earth metals MP, USAR also bid and defense spending and Greenland talk is keeping the meme alive.  MAGS led by GOOGL which is the strongest and AAPL is continuing to drag. CPI will likely be market-moving premarket.  Monday, the premarket dip was met with put selling, which lifted the index, and as long as SPX > 6900 expect the same with the risk if it doesn’t hold. 1m S&P500 correlation 7.66% is very low and reflects the large divergence one sees every day between sectors and stocks within sectors. Low correlation will mean revert and current correlation is close to lows of 2025 which is a consideration as SPX will revert with correlation. No prediction for when, sadly. ** CPI y/y inline, m/m inline, Core 0.2% vs 0.3% expected but generally indicating sticky inflation. Initial reaction: SPY+, TLT+. Typically, post a data release that is inline or better than expected, vol fall,s which can lift equity. It’s automatic and need to watch what happens when the  market opens. Not obvious to me why it means the Fed should cut rates, but market seems to be fixated on employment so may not care as much about inflation.

Daily Expected Move. SPX(7014-6940), SPY(699-691), QQQ(631-623),  IWM(264-259)

Stocks to watch GOOGL, LHX, JPM, DAL, AAL, BABA Speculative RCAT, MP, USAR, PDD
Indices UNG, /CL, UFO, ARKX, SLV, ETHE, XLE, IBIT, GDX, ARKQ, XLI,  KWEB, IGV, XBI, EFA, XLK, IYT, XLF

S&P500 LHX, INTC, AMD, DAL, HPQ, ORCL, QCOM
Other RCAT, ABVX, MP, EOSE, PL, OKLO, HL, USAR, AG, EQNR, NVTS, BE, ONDS, RDW, TVTX, PDD, AMRZ, VNET, ARM, AAL, BABA

KWEB

China names had a big surge Monday apparently on statements from China VP on encouraging foreign investment.  BABA was +10% Monday and one of the holdings. KWEB has been in a downtrend that may be ending.  Large call options positions at 37, 38 may act as resistance but above 38 can squeeze to 40-44.