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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – positive  set-up

·       Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.00% Currencies: USA$ +0.06%, CAD -0.19%, YEN -0.04%, BTC/USD+1.07%, Vix:16.85

·       Events: USA: UE claims, Empire/Philly Fed mfg 830ET; UK GDP+ m/m

·       Stock News: TSM+5.86%, PEN+13%, GS -0.94%, MS 0%, BLK+1.8%, JBHT, RCH earnings; 

·        Equity: Global indices higher with USA indices led by Nasi. TSM earnings are the catalyst with strong guidance and a capex increase. TSM revives the AI dream and lifting semis, AI data center names, AI infrastructure. Capex increase lifting the equipment companies like AMAT, KLAC, ASML etc. TSM increasing its capex plan is seen as belief in the continuation of AI spending over the long term but is also they typical pattern of semi industry which moves in cycles and ends up with over capacity. MAGS are led by AVGO and NVDA with AAPL flat and continuing to underperform the index. QQQ is close to the upper expected move (625) so at high of range where stats favor stall/pullback with alternate thesis breakout. Speculative spaces are led by quantum, space, and robotics which are still behind the semis. It does indicate that at least for today the momentum/growth group is outperforming which may weigh on the value/cyclical group which has been leading. Financial reporting today MS, BLK, GS all reported good earnings with GS trading lower. Energy, precious metals, bitcoin pulling back after large moves Wed, likely taking a breather. Iran threat cooling is negative for energy and gold. SPX 0DTE indicates strong support > 6900 so BTD likely to work and mean reversion at the highs of the daily expected move are likely.

Daily Expected Move. SPX(6963-6889), SPY(694-687), QQQ(625-614),  IWM(265.5-261)

Stocks to watch TSM, NVDA, ASML, SLV, IBIT, XLE Speculative CRWV, PL, RKLB
Indices SMH, UNG, XLK, QTUM, ARKX, QQQ, ARKX, UFO, ARKQ,  /CL, SLV, KWEB, IBIT, XLE, ETHE, GLD, XLV

S&P500 AMAT, LRCX, SNDK, MU, AVGO, AMD, SMCI, NVDA, ORCL, BSX, COIN
Other ASML, ABVX, CRWV, UUUU, APLD, SMR, NBIS, OOKLO, NVTS, IREN, PL, TRIP, CRML, AG, BP, RKLB, RDW, BSX, SHEL, NVO

SKYT

Skywater is a long-term idea. It’s a US semiconductor DMEA Category 1A trusted foundry with preferred access to defense supply chain. Specialty is analog and rad-hard chips which are used in space and military applications, which are a focus of the USA govt. The company is risky and has had a large move this year so ideally one would look for pullbacks. Space is a hot sector with large private and public investments and the USA govt has several programs. USA govt/DOW have been actively investing in key companies which can provide support to companies like SKYT. Note that large companies like TSM, GFC are not competitors to SKYT