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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight positive set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,   Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -0.32%  Currencies:  USA$ -0.03%, CAD +0.42%, YEN +0.09%,  BTC/USD+0.66%,  Vix:18.55

·         Events: USA: FOMC Meeting 14ET

·         Stock News: ASML+5.5%, STX+9.3%, T+3%,  GLW-3%, DHR-5.4%, OTIS-4.7%, TXT-3.5%, ELV-7.4%,  EPS

·          Equity: USA Indices gap up premarket with QQQ leading. QQQ catalyst was STX and ASML earnings which has revived the semi/AI trade and lifting all of the usual suspects. Semi equipment: AMAT, LRCX, KLAC Memory: SNDK, MU, WDC, Hynix, Samsung and of course NVDA, AMD, AVGO and INTC.  QQQ is at the top of the daily and expected move hence stretched premarket and question is whether it can continue to squeeze higher or pullbacks in RTH. US$ continues to fall which is positive for the commodity squeeze following Trump comments on the US$. Healthcare earnings names ELV, DHR are lower which is not positive for the sector. When there is an outsized move in a S&P sector like XLK, it tends to suck capital from other sectors and premarket the other 10 S&P sectors are weak. The spec tech sector ETFS are strong with a bid to SPACE, quantum and junior uranium so premarket it’s a tech day and the fourth day of the rotation from the value names back to the tech bros. ASML revenue was +5% y-y  and are cutting 5% of employees. Forecast is 16% rev growth FY2026 is good enough I guess but the stock reaction seems to indicate trapped shorts. STX reporting that sold out for 2026 which is good but to grow revenue will require price increases. MSFT, META, TSLA, IBM report after the close and the AI bros will want to hear that capex plans are continuing to go to the moon and analysts will want to see some evidence that the big spends on AI are producing more than demand for chips and electricity i.e. earnings. AMZN announced 15k layoffs today which is the second tranche and market may be looking for META to cutback on spending to turn the stock around. FOMC meeting today in theory should not be eventful with no expectation of rate changes and economic data muddled due to govt shutdown but there can be a reaction to Powell’s comments.

Daily Expected Move. SPX(7016-6941)  SPY(699-691.7) QQQ(637-625)  IWM(267-262)

Stocks to watch ASML NVDA STX MU TXN  ELV DHR Speculative EAT GFI CRML
Indices SMH GLD UFO XLK KWEB QTUM XME ARKX ARKQ MSOS  UNG EFA XLV XLU XLF XLP TLT

S&P500 WDC TXN SNDK INTC LRCX MU T NVDA SMCI AMD AVGO GEV GLW
Other AI ASML EAT CRWV GFI CRCL UUUU HMY OKLO STM BABA UMC DB NVO CRML TEVA

META

META reports after the close today. Stock has been under pressure due to the high level of spending and a potential catalyst is for Zuck to reign in spending as he did the last time the stock dropped. Expected move is +/-40 and the call wall is 700 which can act as resistance or acceleration. Hedgewall 650 can lead to acceleration to downside below. Butterflies are a low cost way to trade the earnings move in either direction. Traders are positioned bullishly.