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Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets:  USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – slight positive set-up

·         Commodities:  Gold, Silver, Copper,  Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

·         Yields: 30Y Bond -0.22%  Currencies:  USA$ -0.06% CAD +0.1% YEN -0.02%  BTC/USD-1.6%  Vix:18.65

·         Events: USA: Trade balance, jobless claims 830ET

·         Stock News: META+9.2% TSLA+2.4% CAT+1.5% LRCX+4.3% IBM+6.5% RCL+6.6% RCL+6.7%  STM-4.9% TSCO-3.9% MSFT-7% NOW-7.4% LHX-4.5% TSCO-3.9% SAP-14% CLS-5% LVS-6.5% EPS  FSLR-7%  downgrade

·          Equity: USA indices are slightly higher post FOMC and major earnings releases. MAGS diverged with META moving higher > EM  and MSFT moving lower > expected move (EM). META increased capex plans and dipped initially and then soared. MSFT beat estimates however market may be reacting to ½ of its future bookings tied to OpenAI. TSLA missed on all metrics but higher since it’s TSLA. IBM higher > EM with market liking the AI story.  NOW and SAP bludgeoned and with MSFT lower, the software sector continues to underperform with meme that software being impacted by AI. SAP weighting is pulling down the DAX.  Commodities continue to move parabolically with copper the metal du jour and silver, gold, palladium still moving with news that China is buying with 2 hands overnight and copper in China trading above Comex.  Oil higher as USA sends a carrier battle group towards Iran and saber rattling continues.  Semis are trading higher in general but NVDA, AVGO, TSM  are lower inspite of META capex higher,  likely due to a lift by equipment companies. SPX 0DTE indicates well supported between 6950-7040. AAPL, SNDK, WDC on deck for earnings so given the violent reactions Wed, potentially more fireworks to come.  Today watch the names that reported Wed for reaction today, do they buy/sell the dips and rips? Will metals bubbles continue to inflate?

Daily Expected Move. SPX(7020-6936)  SPY(699.6-691.2) QQQ(640-626.5)  IWM(265.7-260.9)

Stocks to watch META GOOGL IBM TSLA RCL  MSFT NOW FSLR  Speculative BEKE USAR CRML MP
Indices GLD UNG /CL SLV XLC XLE GDX KWEB EWC UFO  ETHE IGV IBIT MSOS XLK TLT

S&P500 META FCX WDC TSLA SNDK GOOGL CCL PLTR NOW MSFT LVS TSCO
Other BEKE TAL AMPX ASM RIO RDW BP CDE B AG HL SAP JOBY UMC USAR CRML STM MP GFI UUUU BMNR

AAPL

AAPL reports after the close with expected move +/-9.6. Call wall 280 and large option position at 250 and put wall at 240.  Questions are whether high memory prices will be negative for iPhone margins, the AI strategy and China sales. IV elevated into the print for this week’s options so one can consider flies or calendars to take advantage of the IV crush.