.

Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS,  Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond -0.24% Currencies: USA$ +0.22.%, CAD -0.19%, YEN -0.13%, BTC/USD-0.13%, Vix:16.35

·       Events: USA ISM service PMI 9:45ET
 Stock News: CES underway, NVDA higher premarket following Jensen keynote pushing Rubin. Semis higher premarket
Equity: USA indices are relatively unchanged but overnight dropped, popped, dropped and currently rising in NY premarket. Monday saw a major reversal at the open with large cap tech falling and a surge in financials, small caps and spec tech with high short interest names leading. Today QQQ is leading again with semis led by NVDA, MU and storage names like SNDK again higher. Question is whether price can continue to rise in RTH or they are sold yet again. MAGS are led by NVDA and TSLA with AAPL flat after a drop Mon as well as AMZN which popped. Metals continue to rampage higher with copper making a new high and precious metal higher, all are technically stretched but are being squeezed. Energy names are on watch with Mon pop on the Venezuela news sold throughout the day. Canadian heavy oil producers had a small bounce but may attract interest since it will take 3-10 yrs to turn on Venezuela oil production. CDN pipeline companies and rail (e.g. CP) that carry oil may be oversold. Monday was short-squeeze city with data center companies, space, drones, defense, quantum, and nuclear having big positive moves. Premarket, there are signs of continuation in space and quantum, but there are some drone, data center names retracing. A caveat is that the buying in some of these names is forced via a short squeeze rather than fundamental. SPX 6900 is the large 0DTE level that can be used as a line in the sand. 1m correlation 8.75% is very low and prior index pullbacks have occurred when correlation is low, with 8% an extreme low.  This explains the extreme behaviour Mon with XLF moving well above the weekly expected move while AAPL NVDA are dumped. It means that individual stock picking is key and that one shouldnt be overly complacent. 

·      
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6939-6865)  SPY(691-684) QQQ(623-613)  IWM(255-250)

Stocks to watch NVDA, MU,TSLA, BABA, JPM Speculative MBLY, ZETA, RCAT, JOBY
Indices SLV, MSOS, SMH, GDX, /CL, UFO, KWEB, QTUM, UNG, TLT, IBIT, XLF, IWM

S&P500 SNDK, SMCI, MU, INTC, AMD
Other OS, WVE, ARWR, ZETA, MBLY, SMR, NVO, GFI, CRWV, TSM, NBIS, AG, USAR, RCAT, BP, JOBY, STLA, IREN, BABA, RDW

CNQ

Canadian oil companies were hit on the Venezuela news as Canadian heavy oil is currently sent to USA refiners and in theory could be surplanted. Reality is rebuilding Venezuela oil complex is a long term project requiring billions of dollars and the political situation is far from resolved. CNQ has already bounced somewhat but one could consider selling puts to buy stock or stock outright with idea that Canadian oil will continue to flow through existing transport infrastructure (oil/pipeline). CNQ pays a 5% dividend provides a bit of a backstop. This is a longer term idea and not necessarily a short term trade. If Venezuela unravels CNQ may get a pop

 Laurie’s Abbreviation Index:

** ‘div’ – dividend 

** ‘m/m’ – month over month

** ‘y/y’ – year over year

** ‘Inven’ – inventories

** ‘mfg’ – manufacturing 

** +/- – plus or minus, positive or negative

** Underlined text – higher volume premarket

** ‘d’ – day

** ‘Y’ – year

**govt – government 

Color Key: Positive – Neutral – Negative

Global Markets: USA, Europe, Japan, China, Hong Kong – neutral  set-up

·       Commodities: Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, Oil, natgas, AGGS, Bitcoin

·       Yields: 30Y Bond +0.43% Currencies: USA$ +0.04.%, CAD -0.05%, YEN +0.04%, BTC/USD-0.64%, Vix:16.35

·       Events: ADP jobs 815ET; ISM services, JOLTS 10ET

·       Stock News: Earnings: CAL, ACI premarket STZ, JEF, APLD postmarket
Equity: USA indices closed at the top of weekly expected move Tues led by 2025 laggards and high short interest stocks. Premarket global indices are slightly lower ahead of economic data with ADP jobs premarket and ISM services data, and JOLTS 10ET. Market is focused on Fed rate cuts to keep the plates spinning, so may cheer weaker data unless much weaker than expected but the big data point will be the non-farm payroll data on Fri. MAGS are led by NVDA and TSLA with remainder slightly lower. Tues AMZN surged while NVDA, AAPL fell so large moves are very possible when the markets open. AAPL is below 50sma with oscillators oversold with distribution without major news. Precious metals, memory names (MU SNDK), Space (RKLB, ASTS), Drones, Quantum and Semis ex-NVDA are taking a breather premarket after squeezing for 3 days. Remains to be seen whether the monkeys are buyers or sellers in RTH. MSTR, BMNR are higher after MSCI decided to keep them in the indices, potential for squeeze higher or just a bounce for shorts to pounce on. MBLY big bounce on buying a small robotics company, potential for squeeze or sell the rip. SPX 6900 remains the key support level today. Indices are statistically extended with IWM the most extended and the most susceptible to a pullback should the monkeys take profit; however with the GS most shorted basket outperforming one cannot discount continuation of short squeeze so take care.

·      
Daily Expected Move. SPX(6976-6912), SPY(695-688), QQQ(627-619),  IWM(258-254)

Stocks to watch NVDA, ALB, TT, MU, AMD, KWEB Speculative MBLY, MSTR, ASTS, RKLB
Indices UNG, MSOS, TLT, XLE, XBI, SLV, GDX, XME, KWEB, GLD, ETHE, IBIT, SMH, UFO, EFA

S&P500 REGN, ALB, LOW, TT, HSY, VLO, DECK, FSLR, NEM, FCX, CCL, LRCX, AMAT, SNDK, MU, AMD
Other GLUE, MBLY, CRML, MSTR, GME, VOD, NVO, APLD, MP, ASTS, SMR, RKLB, AG, HL, CDE, ONDS, RDW, RGTI

AAPL

AAPL has been pulling back as the S&P has moved higher indicating distribution. Options market is still tilted to calls and IV is relatively low indicating a lack of fear and potentially just rebalancing. Large positions at 260 which is a potential pivot level for a bounce or failing, the next support level is 250.